Nick’s Early Rankings

Tier 1: Caleb Williams and Drake Maye

Tier 2: Jordan Travis, and Riley Leonard

Tier 3: JJ McCarthy

Tier 4: Michael Penix and Bo Nix.

Tier 5: Joe Milton, Tyler Van Dyke, Quinn Ewers, and Michael Pratt.

Tier 6: Phil Jurkovec, Spencer Rattler, and Jayden Daniels.

2024 QB Rankings

1. Caleb Williams
   • At first I was skeptical of the hype, but after watching him more he is definitely that guy. His off script ability is second to none and he can make any throw. He also has tremendous confidence in himself as he always views a situation as one in which he can make a play.  Not as great of an athlete as I initially thought but he is definitely good enough of an athlete to be a threat as a playmaker in the NFL.  He has a tendency to try to extend plays for too long which could be an issue at the next level, but I expect him to figure that out in a hurry. Williams is also not going to be a huge threat as a runner at the next level, he will be best used as a runner in situations similar to Mahomes.  He will probably not test great athletically.  Regardless, Caleb Williams should be the first player taken in next year’s draft and should be a very good QB for a long time.
2. Drake Maye
   • Drake Maye kind of came out of nowhere with his 2022 season.  He has very good NFL size for the position and he has the athleticism and arm talent to match it.  Maye proved to be a QB who can not only make any throw on the field, but that he can also make a lot of plays with his legs. He made a whopping 45(!) Big Time Throws in his first year as the starter in 2022 and he had 76 undesigned scrambles which shows me he not only is a threat with his arm but also his legs.  He throws a good deep ball and is able to excel with good ball placement.  His pressure to sack rate is reasonable at 18% but it would be very beneficial to get that down a little bit in his final college season.  I predict that his 2023 could be a bit of an adjustment as he will be changing offensive coordinators but Maye has the talent to overcome the loss of his very good play caller.  Maye is one who reminds me quite a bit of Justin Herbert as they both possess great size and arm talent.  I also believe they both are at their best when they are pushing the ball downfield. The thing I would like to see the most from Maye is him to become a bit more consistent with his short to intermediate passing and for him to weather the storm with the loss of his OC.  When digging into Sam Howell’s time at UNC, he had a very similar statistical season as Maye his freshman year before tailing off in his final season.  I think Maye will be able to maintain his draft stock as he has the size that Howell lacked.  However, it is worth mentioning given they played under the same system.  Regardless, Maye is one to me who has the ability to be a top 3 pick in the 2024 Draft. He stacks up very favorably against some of the best QB prospects from years past.  It is very difficult not to buy in to Maye.

*All from PFF and numbers from the QBs best seasons.

QBs	BTTs	TWPs	BTT%	P2S%	SCR
Drake Maye	45	16	8.4%	18.3%	76
Pat Mahomes	42	28	6.6%	10.2%	49
Caleb Williams	32	11	6.0%	16.0%	36
Josh Allen	43	20	10.6%	15.8%	53
Justin Herbert	29	17	6.8%	16.9%	30
Deshaun Watson	35	16	6.7%	11.4%	54
Trevor Lawrence	30	15	6.9%	16.4%	26
Joe Burrow	41	11	7.5%	19.1%	47

The above categories are ones in which the truly elite QBs perform very well in prior to entering the NFL. While not the end all be all, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye both compare favorably to the best of the best in college. Although in Drake Mayes case it was just the one season that he was the starter, the other QBs listed above did not always have their boom season in their final college season.

3. Jordan Travis
   • When I first watched Jordan Travis play several years ago I did not think the guy belonged on a college field.  I thought his technique was bad and he was all over the place in terms of decision making and accuracy.  Fast forward to 2023, and Travis has improved each season since coming into college.  His Big Time Throw rate has steadily increased since entering the league and his Turnover Worthy Play rate has steadily decreased.  He has turned into a guy who is making big throws and rarely turning the ball over. Travis is also very unique in that he is a smaller QB who is more than willing to throw to the middle of the field.  He is a guy who will stand in and take a hit in order to help his team.  His confidence plus his improving pocket presence is a great sight for his NFL future.  Travis reminds me a lot of Jalen Hurts.  Both are pretty efficient runners and are very good at breaking tackles.  An underrated part of Travis’s game and something that scouts overlooked in Hurts’s game coming out of college, is their overall football IQ and intelligence.  I’m not a huge believer in Hurts’s arm talent but he still is able to lead one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL due to his ability in the rush game and him always seeming to make the right play and right read.  I think Jordan Travis has the ability to bring a similar style to a NFL franchise.  Given all of that and the fact that Travis has also made year over year jumps similar to Hurts, why wouldn’t an NFL team take a chance on his upside in the 1st round?  I get the concern with his age and size, but with his year over year improvement I am not too concerned.  Oftentimes older prospects seem to plateau or just produce better stats by being older than the competition.  I personally like Travis’s growth in areas that will make it easier to replicate at the NFL level. I also am a big believer in the overall roster that Florida State will have in 2023 and I think Travis will be one who makes another jump and competes for the Heisman trophy.  If I had to bet on a player in the NFL, it definitely feels like a good bet to put stock in the player who continues to improve every season.
4. Riley Leonard
   • When doing summer scouting for the 2024 class, Riley Leonard was probably the biggest surprise for me. He put up rather average statistics on the surface but when looking deeper into it, I saw a guy who has a ton of potential.  Although his completion percentage was rather low, he still was able to have an adjusted completion percentage over 70%.  He also had a low turnover worthy play rate and was effective at taking care of the football.  His BTT rate on the other hand wasn’t quite where you would like. The hope is that he gains more confidence in his arm in his 2nd season as the starter and decides to challenge downfield more, but his lack of downfield throwing was something that is a concern.  Leonard also needs to improve when under pressure from a passing standpoint, but given that he was only the starter for one season it is not too big of a concern.  On the flip side, Duke had 79% of Leonard’s dropbacks as traditional dropbacks with no play action.  That shows the level of faith they have in Leonard as a passer and processor. Leonard was also very good at avoiding sacks as his pressure to sack rate was at 10.6% which is very promising. Given Leonard’s athleticism and scrambling ability, I really like his upside and am willing to gamble with a projection here.  There is a possibility that Leonard ends up being a game manager type with a strong rushing ability, which likely would not garner this ranking but can still be a productive outcome.  Someone like Daniel Jones is not a bad outcome if that comes to fruition.  On the other hand, he does have at least some possibility to develop into a now coveted playmaking QB at the NFL level.  If Duke’s offense or Leonard himself decides to challenge teams more downfield in 2023, then I really think he can ascend to the top of the 1st round in the 2024 draft.  With the size, athleticism, and toughness that teams aim for, Leonard has a ton to gain in the fall of 2023.
5. JJ McCarthy
   • McCarthy is one who had a solid but not spectacular sophomore season. Michigan was largely carried by their run game and mainly relied on McCarthy in the bigger games. When looking deeper into it, I think there is still a lot to like about JJ McCarthy.  In terms of potential, I think he has one of the higher ceilings in college football.  He has good athleticism and a strong arm to go with playmaking ability that is very intriguing.  Not only can McCarthy extend the play with the best of them, but he also does it without taking a high number of sacks.  In year 3 I would love to see Michigan open up the offense a bit more and allow McCarthy to be himself, while also incorporating more QB runs.  If he can make more plays with his legs next season then his floor goes way up in my eyes.  Given that McCarthy plays in a pro style offense, he has great playmaking skills, and he does a solid job of taking care of the football, I think he is one that has the most to gain by having a much improved junior season.  Doing things like cutting down on the turnover worthy plays and also simply getting better under pressure.  He had some success using his legs when he was under pressure,but far too often he would put the football in harms way when the offensive line collapses.  He will likely improve in that area just by gaining more experience, but it was definitely a concerning part of his game from 2022.  If he makes jumps in the right areas and the Michigan offense changes some things up for him, I think JJ McCarthy could ascend into the 1st round of the 2024 draft. McCarthy is unique in that I could be entirely wrong on both ends of the spectrum.  I could see a scenario in which he is too low on this list and ends up in the conversation at the top of this year’s class.  I could also see a scenario where he doesn’t progress and really isn’t in the conversation at all a year from now.  I decided on 5th as his upside is too high to be lower and his production profile is not high enough to make the top 4.
6. Michael Penix
   • Penix is a very interesting draft prospect to me.  He is a solid pocket passer who has turned into a good decision maker. To me though, Penix’s best attribute is his pocket navigation.  Although he was not pressured a ton, his 3.2% pressure to sack rate was very impressive from his 5th college season.  His pressure to sack rate has never been very high since he entered college so I am a believer in his pocket presence. I do think I’m a believer in Penix’s accuracy.  His completion percentage has never been too high throughout his college career but his adjusted completion percentage is plenty high.  However, he does have a tendency to have inconsistent footwork which leads to his passes being off target.  Penix also has times where he will try too hard to thread the needle and will put the ball in position to be intercepted.  I am not a big believer in Penix’s arm strength.  He can push passes out past the numbers but when it comes to throwing the ball downfield he seems to lack the power to lead his receivers deep down the field.  He throws a good touch pass, but he relies a lot on his receivers to make plays for him on deep balls.  Another issue I see with Penix’s game is that he either lacks athleticism or he refuses to use it. I applaud Penix for his growth in cutting back on Turnover Worthy plays, but he has made no progress in being able to extend the play with his legs.  He only scrambled 14 times in 2022 despite having 576 total dropbacks.  In order to be a difference maker at the next level, Penix will have to become elite as a pocket passer due to his inability to extend the play and make the extra play with his legs. I find it difficult to bet on guys like that because it leaves very little room for error. I think Penix has a chance in the NFL to become a Tua Tagovailoa type QB (not just because they are both left-handed) as they both rely a lot on their precision due to their lack of arm talent and mobility. Even Tua is one that is not a sure bet to be a franchise QB.  To go along with the Tua comp, Penix has also struggled mightily to stay healthy throughout his college career.  Penix will enter his 6th college season in 2023 and in order to ascend to a top 1-2 round QB he will need to be nearly flawless in his final season. 
7. Bo Nix
   • Nix is a player who has grown quite a bit the last few years.  Oregon allowed him to get his feet under him and built an offense around him that is best able to utilize his skillset. That leads me into what I think is the biggest concern with Nix, Oregon had him throwing a large percentage of his throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.  I compared the numbers with as many QB prospects that are now in the NFL as I can and Nix does not stack up favorably. 65% of Nix’s pass attempts from last season were within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage which is the highest percentage that I have found, and just 26% of his passes were greater than 10 yards which is the lowest percentage that I have found.  Does this mean Nix is not a prospect in my eyes? No.  I do think it adds some context to Nix’s improvement from his time at Auburn.  I read it as Oregon found that it was best to simplify things for Nix while sprinkling in deep shots. Nix saw a large increase in his completion percentage and cut his turnover worthy play rate down to be almost nonexistent and I think a large part of that was them shortening things up for him as his ADOT dropped to 7.4.  However, there are some real positives with Nix’s game. Nix has improved every season at limiting sacks and being able to escape pressure, as his Pressure to sack rate was down to just 6% last season. Oregon also found something with his rushing ability, as he had his best rushing season to date with 14 rushing TDs. I personally think Nix will be a valuable backup QB at the NFL level.  With his improvements in taking care of the football while also displaying his rushing and deep throw ability would be a valuable contribution to a team in the NFL. I think drafting Nix in the first few rounds of the draft would be a mistake, but in the later rounds he could be a nice value to a team looking for a nice backup with spot start ability.  You will see in a chart below but Nix does have the possibility of being a Brock Purdy like player.  They both have similar profiles at this point in their careers.  Nix and Purdy both have similar abilities to avoid sacks at a high level and have the ability to excel as low ADOT ball control QBs. 
8. Joe Milton
   • Milton is one of the more intriguing college QB prospects I have seen in awhile.  From the first time I saw him play as a freshman, I knew the sky would be the limit for him.  Unfortunately, Milton has seen quite a few bumps in the road along the way.  He flashes some but otherwise struggled when given the opportunity at Michigan and early on at Tennessee.  His arm is one of the strongest I have seen at any level but him being able to utilize it to his advantage has been a work in progress.  Last season at Tennessee Milton seemed to show real growth in the passing department. Despite throwing just 82 passes, Milton threw an unbelievable 10 Big Time Throws while throwing just 2 Turnover Worthy plays. It is a small sample size so it is tough to take too much from it, but Milton has always been a prospect worth waiting on due to his unreal physical gifts.  One area where he has really struggled is being able to layer his throws, as he oftentimes will throw rockets at his receivers.  He seemed to show some improvement in that area but it remains to be seen how much growth was actually made.   If he can build off his 70% adjusted completion percentage that would be a big step in the right direction for Milton.  However, even if Milton were to fix his accuracy issues, there are a few other warts that he has had that he will need to show growth in.  Despite having great size and solid athleticism, he has yet to be able to take advantage of that by scrambling. He is also primarily just a statue in the pocket as he has not shown a ton of playmaking ability with his legs. For someone who has as many physical gifts as Milton possesses, you would like to see him be able to make a play out of structure.  That also plays along with the fact that he has shown a tendency to get sacked too often when he is pressured.  Is his pressure to sack rate the 39% from 2021 or the more reasonable 17% from the rest of his career?  If he were to have his pressure to sack rate at or below 17% in 2023 that would be a huge step in the right direction.  Although the negatives are adding up, I do think Milton has a chance to get some of them fixed.  He has waited patiently since his failed stint as a starter and has supposedly made big strides. If Joe Milton can learn to channel his arm a bit and can include some improved pocket presence, Milton could find himself in a solid position to be drafted a lot earlier than expected given his age.  A benchmark for Milton should be at a 70%+ adjusted completion percentage and a pressure to sack rate at or below 17%.  If he is able to reach those, I think I would be in on Milton as a prospect.  Like I said, his physical talent is worth waiting on if he ever gets it put together. 
9. Tyler Van Dyke
   • I don’t have much to say on Tyler Van Dyke as I think it is best to completely throw out his 2022 film.  He was in an offense that was not suited for him and lacked any kind of weapons. I saw promise in Van Dyke’s 2021 numbers and I hope 2023 will lead to a better situation for him.  Van Dyke has a solid arm and has very good ball placement. He is not an elite athlete but he is able to make plays with his legs. I see potential in Van Dyke to be a Matthew Stafford style player at the next level if he can develop.  Building his way up to be an early round draft pick in 2024 will be tough, but I would not completely rule it out.
10. Quinn Ewers
    • Quinn Ewers is a QB that had a lot of hype coming out of high school.  He is viewed as a high upside prospect due to his terrific arm talent. I am one that has quite a bit of pushback against that narrative.  Ewers clearly has a ton of arm talent as he has the ability to push the ball downfield with ease.  However, Ewers has yet to prove that he can hit targets downfield with ease. When he throws his deep passes he has a tendency to just throw it up and hope that a receiver happens to be where the ball is landing. Ewers also has shown no ability to escape the pocket at this point in his career.  He had a scramble rate similar to Michael Penix as he only had 8 scrambles on 319 dropbacks.  Rather than take off and extend the play, Ewers would just resort to launching a deep pass or throwing the ball away.  In his second season as a starter I would like to see Ewers show some kind of ability to leave the pocket and make a play.  On the bright side for Ewers, he played an excellent quarter of football against Alabama who had numerous NFL players on their defense.  He also was a highly rated QB out of high school so that has to count for something as there were people who saw the potential for him.  Lastly, Ewers had 19 Big Time Throws to just 12 Turnover Worthy plays and had a pressure to sack rate under 14%.  All of those facts make it tough for me to completely rule out Ewers as a prospect.  He has some stuff to build on and I hope he is able to take advantage of that going into his 3rd year in college. Overall, I think Ewers has the look of a prospect who will probably be overhyped by NFL scouts due to his arm talent and overall physical tools.  The NFL has shown a tendency recently to overvalue certain traits given the rise of QBs like Mahomes and Allen.  As of now I don’t see a guy who has sky high potential at the NFL level, just a guy with a strong arm.  He does have some hope to turn into a Matthew Stafford type player at the NFL level but with that mold it leaves little room for error.  Ewers badly needs reps against college competition and I hope he is able to get those while fending off the talented QBs behind him at Texas.  If Ewers struggles early, his future will look very murky given the QBs he has behind him and the fact that he has already transferred once.  Would he jump to the NFL even if he were benched to avoid having to sit a year when transferring?  I would not be surprised.  Regardless, until Ewers can show some sort of playmaking ability out of structure, he will have to improve his consistency a ton for me to value him as an early round draft pick.
11. Michael Pratt
    • Michael Pratt is a solid QB who has 3 years of starting experience now under his belt. He has good size and is a solid athlete.  In his junior season he improved quite a bit on decision making as his turnovers and Turnover Worthy play rate dropped quite a bit from his sophomore season.  Pratt also seems to have solid arm strength as he puts good zip on his passes. His deep passing also is a strength as he has good touch and also gives his receivers a chance. He also made a jump in the rushing department as he really became an asset on the ground.  With that being said, Pratt has not seen a huge jump in his pocket navigation or Big Time Throw rate.  His pressure to sack rate continues to hover around the mid 20s which is a bit higher than you would like.  He also has never taken a big step in his Big Time Throw rate throughout his 3 seasons as he only had 13 in his last season.  If that would be the case after 2 seasons then I would have hope going into his 3rd season but instead he enters year 4 without a ton of progression in two important statistics.  Tulane has also not put a ton more on Pratt from his freshman season which is a tad bit of a concern for me. You’d like your top college QBs to get more put on them as their college career progresses but Tulane has instead relied more on the run game.  Granite Spears was a very good back, I would like to see Tulane do more traditional dropbacks than they have.  That is something I would expect them to do in his senior season. For me, I don’t see a ton of upside for Pratt at the next level.  I do think he has some upside to become a Brock Purdy level player, but anything more than that would be a stretch for me.  Pratt to me has some upside to be a late Day 2 or early Day 3 pick in the next NFL Draft with an improved senior season.

*All from PFF

Brock Purdy	BTT%	TWP%	ADOT	SCR	P2S%
Junior	3.4	3.9	8.9	31	9.9
Sophomore	4.2	3.8	8.8	34	10.3
Freshman	8.3	3.6	11.8	31	18.3

Bo Nix	BTT%	TWP%	ADOT	SCR	P2S%
Senior	3.7	1.7	7.4	25	6.5
Junior	5.0	3.8	9.0	16	11.6
Sophomore	4.7	2.8	8.6	32	14.5

Michael Pratt	BTT%	TWP%	ADOT	SCR	P2S%
Junior	3.7	1.7	8.9	36	24.4
Sophomore	3.7	5.2	9.0	38	22.1
Freshman	5.2	3.2	11.0	34	27.0

All appear to be pretty solid matches across the board.  All have seemed to settle with a Big Time Throw rate at around 3-4% after initial rates higher.  Given that Purdys went down as a senior, they all have also cut down on turnovers as their careers have progressed.  Not only have they all slowly dropped in ADOT throughout their college careers, but they have also had very similar amount of undesigned scrambles as well.  The biggest difference is that Pratt has not had the dip in pressure to sack rate that Purdy and Nix had, but they have enough similarities across the board to garner the comparisons. Perhaps I should have Pratt and Nix closer in the rankings, but they would likely both be lower rather than higher.  I know Purdy has had a good start to his career, but I do have doubts of him continuing on that path.  Regardless, he has shown the importance of being able to identify late round QBs who can lead the team if injuries occur.

12. Phil Jurkovec
    • I’ll keep it short with Phil Jurkovec.  I was a fan of his entering the last college football season before Boston College’s team imploded. He is one who has the ability to make big throws and has good pocket navigation.  He plays with a lot of toughness and will make plays if he is in an offense that will keep him upright.  He was pressured on 43% of dropbacks last season and he was only sacked on 18% of those which I think is pretty impressive.  If Jurkovec is able to put it together in his last season at Pittsburgh I think he could be a good flier for a team in the draft.  Without a ton of consistency and healthy luck in his lengthy career, it will be difficult for a team to invest too much in him. If given the chance though I think Jurkovec can make something of it.
13. Spencer Rattler
    • I personally am team 2024 draft for Spencer Rattler.  I think he has the ability to clean some stuff up in 2023, but I think it would be best for him to prove it for two years and really take that step.  He is another one of those prospects who the NFL will wait around for with his physical gifts.  Rattler is one who continues to struggle with his decision making as his Turnover Worthy play rate continues to hover a bit high.  To me, I think Rattler really struggles when he has to read a defense. He also struggles with pocket navigation as he has a high pressure to sack rate. However, Rattler does possess some physical gifts as he has great arm talent and has shown the ability to make plays in the past.  If he can improve his decision making he could find himself rising to the first few rounds, I personally just have my doubts.
14. Jayden Daniels
    • Jayden Daniels is a pretty good college QB in my eyes.  He takes pretty good care of the football and is able to be a playmaker with his legs.  When it comes to making something happen with his arm, he tends to always fall short. His team will almost always choose to run rather than trust in him to make a play with his arm.  Daniels is also one who really struggles to navigate the pocket as he had a 30% pressure to sack rate in his 4th college season.  Perhaps he can make a living in the NFL as a backup who will take care of the football and make plays with his legs, but I have a hard time seeing a team invest too much in him with his limitations as a passer at this stage in his career.