Caleb Williams – USC

• Caleb did not have the Junior season that he had probably hoped. His team went 7-5 and he was out of the Heisman race by the midpoint of the season.  How much does that all matter?  Are there signs of concern going forward?  In my opinion it’s a bit mixed. I think USC overall was just a worse team than a year ago.  I thought the weapons around Williams were worse in his final season.  They lost Jordan Addison and they struggled to backfill his position.  Also, the run game did not have the same efficiency which in turn contributed to lack of effectiveness of the play action pass.  Play action passing is where Caleb really seemed to struggle as a Junior.  He took more sacks on play action passes and doubled his turnover worthy play rate from the 2022 season.  I tend to place more of an emphasis on the lack of a consistent run game and also some on defenses adjusting.  Although more of the pressures turned into sacks than the year prior, Williams however did see his efficiency remain the same on traditional drop backs even with him doing it more than the year prior (61.5% No PA in 2023 vs 55.1% No PA in 2022).  His pressure to sack rate isn’t a huge concern to me as his first two years had a consistent rate around 17% rather than the 22% of his Junior season.  I usually worry about QBs developing bad habits but I don’t really have that concern with Caleb.  He continues to escape rush when needed rather than out of habit.  He is also still among the best I have scouted at making plays out of structure.  There is still concern with him not being willing to take the loss on a play but I would not be surprised to see him settle in more as a pro.  Although it will be interesting to see how teams balance limiting the drive killing sacks and the aggressive nature of his play.  I still view him as a highly effective passer from the pocket who throws with good anticipation.  In the games where he had more turnovers I saw that as more him testing windows rather than being inaccurate and reckless.  If that style were to leave him I would be more concerned.  Given his effectiveness in traditional drop backs I still think Williams has the ability to be a better pro than college player.  Although drafting Caleb Williams will require a team to incorporate RPOs, I don’t have a ton of concern in him being in an offense with considerably less than Lincoln Riley’s offense at USC.  With that being said, I think Williams is definitely worth a top of the draft selection and I view him as a safe bet to be a franchise QB.

How could it go wrong for Caleb Williams in the NFL?

• In order for Williams to not reach his potential, his red flags of the 2023 season would have to be more of a reality rather than a blip on the radar.  I think Williams’s pressure to sack rate living in the 20s rather than in the teens would need to be more of a reality.  Caleb plays a fun style of football but if he ends up being a high sack QB and one who turns it over at a high rate, that would make him a lot less enticing. Although I think Caleb is a QB that would be fine in a variety of systems in the NFL, I think one that requires him to play in structure and make timing throws would make him a lot less exciting.  I do think he could make it work as he is able to throw effectively with timing, but an offensive system like the 49ers or Dolphins would not utilize his strengths like others would.  Caleb Williams thrives out of structure and an offense that inhibits that would make him a lot less enticing as a QB.  Given his strengths as a player I would be very surprised to see Williams bust altogether, but there are ways in which he does not reach stardom.

How could Williams reach the upper echelon of QBs in the NFL?

• I think this answer is easier than the previous one.  Caleb has the out of structure ability that each of the top QBs in the NFL possess.  Having counters is what makes the truly elite QBs special.  I like Caleb’s ability to operate in a heavy screen game plan, a vertical passing game plan, and one with a lot of short passes. The way in which I think Caleb reaches the Mahomes/Allen tier is if he develops an elite sense of pocket presence and limits his sack totals.  How crazy of an ask is that?  I don’t think it is.  Although I don’t think Williams reaches the Mahomes level of pocket presence, I do think Josh Allen’s is well within reach.  As a college QB, Allen’s pressure to sack rate settled in at around 16.3%.  Williams’s rate is at 19% for his career but his rate in 2022 was 16%.  Considering that 2022 was the season in which he had the most drop backs by a considerable margin, I think it could be fair to say he has a similar pressure to sack rate as Josh Allen.  Allen turned his college rate of 16.3% and has a NFL pressure to sack rate of 13.6%.  His hovered around 16-19% in his first two years before lowering it to under 15.3% in each of his last 4 seasons.  I do not think it is crazy to think that Caleb Williams could have a similar transition if he is developed properly upon entering the NFL.  With his play style, a low sack rate will make him unstoppable similar to Allen and Mahomes. 

Best comp:

• In general, I think Josh Allen is a better upside comp than Patrick Mahomes.  I believe they are more similar stylistically due to how they like to test tight windows and Williams will likely avoid the rush more similar to Allen than Mahomes. I do think Williams is more similar athletically to Mahomes and while not as athletic, he is safer with his body than Allen.  However, my favorite comp for Caleb Williams is a version of Kyler Murray.  Similar to the conversation above about Caleb transitioning to the pros similar to Allen, I think it is probably more likely that he transitions similarly to Kyler for a number of reasons. During Kyler’s only college season as a starter, he had a pressure to sack rate of 17.2%.  So not too dissimilar to Josh Allen’s and Caleb’s sophomore season.  However, Kyler’s pressure to sack rate in the NFL has settled in around 20%.  Given that Williams’s pressure to sack rate has risen in his Junior season, I think it is probably safer to assume that he will fall closer to Kyler’s NFL rate than Allen’s.  Another reason why I like the Kyler comp is that they both have a very similar play style and they both played in the Lincoln Riley college offense.  The fact that they both will go into the pros with similar playbook knowledge and both win in similar ways, I believe that makes the comparison feel right.  One might be wondering how someone with a pro comp of Kyler is someone who is viewed as a generational type talent. I think Kyler is a very talented player and will make a good career out of himself in the NFL but I think the biggest reason he will not reach the true upper echelon of QBs is that he is lacking in size and overall arm talent.  Caleb Williams however, has the requisite size and arm talent to make the Kyler Murray archetype a top tier NFL QB.  Although Caleb Williams is not a huge QB from a size standpoint, he is much closer to average than Murray.  He also has the ability to stretch the field vertically more consistently than Murray due to better overall arm talent.  Therefore, I think Caleb Williams has a good archetype to end up as an elite QB at the next level. 

Final Grade:

• 8.7 – Good Starter – Future Star

-Nick

QB Scale:

10. Future Hall of Famer – Multiple Super Bowls, among the All-time greats.

9. Future Star – Will challenge for MVP(s) and Super Bowls consistently.

8. Good NFL starter – If the stars align he can win a Super Bowl and maybe challenge for MVP.

7. NFL starter – Will be a reliable starter who will get a 2nd contract. Team will look to upgrade at some point.

6.  Bridge QB/Spot starter  –  Probably not a franchise guy, but will be a good backup and a starter if necessary.

5.  Backup future – Will be a guy who a team will feel comfortable if they are in relief but not a long-term option.

4.  Roster spot candidate – Will challenge for roster spots and could play in a pinch. Likely bouncing from team to team.

3.  Practice Squad QB – Likely will not make a gameday roster but will be good enough to make a practice squad.

2. Will get a look early on – Likely will not make a practice squad but will get the opportunity.

1. Not a NFL QB at all