Drake Maye – North Carolina

• After one of the better college seasons that I can remember, Drake Maye ended up having a bit of a down Junior season at North Carolina. He lost some of his key contributors on offense and lost his offensive coordinator. However, given those losses, I expected to see a bit of a downturn in production. Even the best of the best are not able to keep up the level of consistency once their surroundings change for the worst. In my opinion, there was still a lot to like about Maye’s junior season and when combining it with his sophomore season, I view him as a very good prospect. I personally think Maye has some very good tools and has sky high upside. There are not a lot of quarterbacks that come around with the skillset and play style that Maye possesses. He has high end arm talent and is willing to spray the ball all over the field. His Big Time Throw rate of 8.4% his sophomore year and 7.7% his junior year is pretty incredible. The fact that he had 45 BTTs in his 2nd college season works with what I see on tape, that Maye is constantly trying to thread the needle and he oozes with confidence for a young quarterback. He has great confidence throwing the football that can also be his biggest curse. Maye constantly thinks he can make any throw, even when that throw is not plausible or is no longer there. That is what I think Maye’s biggest weakness is. He seems to have this thought in his head that he will be able to do anything. In the grand scheme of things I think that is a good thing, but his inconsistencies paired with that will create some turnover happy games at the beginning of his career. Something that was consistently popping up on film to me is that he seemed to think he could master looking off a read and the receiver still manage to stay open. He gets himself in trouble trying to predetermine reads and trying to play superman on a play. He needs to get much better about living to fight another day. Although his stats don’t necessarily say it, I think sacks could be an issue in the NFL if he does not tighten up his mental processing. Maye gets away with escaping rush when playing the ACC, but when he gets to the NFL I could see him having some issues. He also needs to get more consistent with his accuracy as he does not also get enough on his throws or sometimes puts too much on it. That should improve with more experience but he appears a bit erratic sometimes with his accuracy. Lucky for Maye, he is one of the younger QB prospects in this year’s draft and should improve quite a bit as he enters the NFL. With his tools and aggressiveness, I think his ceiling is very high. He also is a terrific playmaker outside of the pocket. He does a very good job of escaping the rush and keeping his eyes downfield. Maye also seems to have very good instincts as he will do whatever it takes to get the ball to his guy. If Maye is able to improve on getting away from the rush and timing his escapes, he could be a big time playmaker at the next level. Although he doesn’t break a ton of tackles, I do think Maye should be a plus as a scrambler at the next level. He has solid athleticism and uses it to his advantage when escaping pass rushers. Overall, I would definitely be willing to bet on Maye’s upside.

How could it go wrong for Drake Maye in the NFL?

• In the NFL, things could go badly if Maye never develops consistency. He relies a lot on his tools to get him out of trouble, and when he gets to the NFL and he has average tools, he could really get himself into trouble. When watching some QBs I try to get a feel on which way the sack rate will trend. Some players improve their sack rate in the NFL with better coaching, and some trend in a negative way. Maye is one that could trend negatively if he does not speed up his clock and realize his limitations. Although his pressure to sack rate shouldn’t veer too far from his 18.9% career average, if it were to raise into the 20s, I could see that being an issue for him. The benefits of Maye is he is used to playing in a pass happy scheme and should not be taken off guard in the league with the routes he will be throwing. I have a difficult time seeing him bust all the way as he seems to be able to work the short game well and his ability to make throws down the field is top notch. However, if he is not able to develop consistency and remains inconsistent with his accuracy I could see a path in which he underperforms. After all, it is difficult to predict how these young quarterbacks will do in the face of adversity.

How could Maye reach the upper echelon of QBs in the NFL?

• I see a pretty clear path for Drake Maye reaching the top tier class of quarterbacks in the NFL. He has some raw aspects to his game with his inconsistent accuracy and the way he sees the field. If he is able to clean that up and really strengthen his footwork and ball placement, Maye could become a frightening quarterback for opposing defenses. Given Maye’s tendency for aggressively throwing the ball downfield, I think he has the potential to challenge defenses in ways that very few can. I also mentioned above about how I could see his sack rate raising a bit once he gets to the NFL. However, if Maye is able to become more reliable in the pocket and can lower his pressure to sack rate to closer to 14-15% similar to how Justin Herbert did, I think that could do wonders to his game. With how good Maye is as a quick game passer and with how he is not afraid to push the ball downfield, adding a QB who is tough to sack would make him that much more difficult to stop. Early development will be key for Maye and if he progresses well, the sky is the limit.

Best comp:

• It is difficult to come up with a one to one comp for Maye that is fair to him. I know he gets the comp of Justin Herbert and that is something I immediately thought as well. They have similar size and have similar throwing motions. Another comp I like is Josh Allen. Granite, I think Allen has a bit better of an arm than Maye and is a better and more powerful runner. However, Maye throws with a level of confidence that screams Josh Allen to me. In my opinion, that is where the sky high upside comes into play for Maye. Josh Allen came into the NFL lacking polish. He had unreal tools and confidence in himself that allowed him to eventually shine. I could see that path with Maye. When comparing their college season’s below, the big time throw rate is what really highlights their similarities. So although Maye does not have the elite tools that Josh Allen possesses, they have a style of play that matches up and makes for a fun upside comparison. Another comparison that I like for Drake Maye is Jordan Love. I think Jordan Love plays pretty similar to Maye and he has the fun tools like Maye. Coming out of college, I like Maye more as he has more polish and has played against better competition. However, Love also has a bit of the YOLO play that Maye and Allen has. Love seemed to benefit quite a bit from sitting for a few years, and although I don’t think Maye needs to do the same, he does need to become more consistent across the board.

Drake Maye	ADOT	Scramble Rate	BTT%	TWP%	P2S%	Time to Throw
Jr.	11.0	10.1	7.7	1.9	19.5	2.79
So.	10.4	11.9	8.4	2.4	18.3	2.88

Josh Allen	ADOT	Scramble Rate	BTT%	TWP%	P2S%	Time to Throw
Jr.	11.6	7.0	6.1	4.9	17.1	3.08
So.	13.7	11.5	10.6	4.1	15.8	2.94

Final Grade and thoughts:

7.7 – NFL Starter – Good NFL Starter

• Overall, I feel pretty confident in Drake Maye’s ability to be a solid NFL quarterback. I think his play style is one that should thrive in the NFL and coaches should have a lot of fun helping to channel his aggression into a high level quarterback. Although I am not ready to say that he will be a star, but I do think he has a mold that will translate well to the pros. Given his age, Maye is definitely one I would take a bet on and one that I think pays off.

-Nick

*QB Scale:

• 10. Future Hall of Famer – Multiple Super Bowls, among the All-time greats.
• 9. Future Star – Will challenge for MVP(s) and Super Bowls consistently.
• 8. Good NFL starter – If the stars align he can win a Super Bowl and maybe challenge for MVP.
• 7. NFL starter – Will be a reliable starter who will get a 2nd contract. Team will look to upgrade at some point.
• 6.  Bridge QB/Spot starter  –  Probably not a franchise guy, but will be a good backup and a starter if necessary.
• 5.  Backup future – Will be a guy who a team will feel comfortable if they are in relief but not a long-term option.
• 4.  Roster spot candidate – Will challenge for roster spots and could play in a pinch. Likely bouncing from team to team.
• 3.  Practice Squad QB – Likely will not make a gameday roster but will be good enough to make a practice squad.
• 2. Will get a look early on – Likely will not make a practice squad but will get the opportunity.
• 1. Not a NFL QB at all