Nick’s Rankings

Tier 1: Caleb Williams

Tier 2: Drake Maye

Tier 3: JJ McCarthy

Tier 4: Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix

Tier 5: Michael Pratt and Spencer Rattler

Tier 6: Joe Milton

2024 QB Rankings

1. Caleb Williams
   • I posted a full evaluation with my thoughts on Caleb Williams. Initially I viewed him as in a similar tier with Maye, but after watching more on him I think he belongs in his own tier. He is a special prospect who has a chance to really explode in the NFL.
   • 8.7 – Good Starter – Future Star
2. Drake Maye
   • I posted a full evaluation with my thoughts on Drake Maye. Even after taking Maye down a tier, I still think he is a very good prospect who I think should be a top 2 pick in the draft. I think his upside is very high and it would not surprise me if in a few years we are talking about him amongst the top 5-10 QBs in the NFL.
   • 7.7 – NFL Starter – Good NFL Starter
3. JJ McCarthy
   • I posted a full evaluation with my thoughts on JJ McCarthy. I’m a big fan of McCarthy and I think his upside is much higher than most. He has displayed intriguing playmaking ability to go along with his precision passing. I’m betting on him being a solid pro and expect him to have a long career.
   • 7.2 – NFL Starter – Good NFL Starter
4. Jayden Daniels
   • I posted a full evaluation with my thoughts on Jayden Daniels. Overall, I probably have a lower opinion on Daniels than consensus. As of this point in time, I expect him to be the 2nd overall pick in the draft, but I probably would not take him in the first round. He has a decently high floor due to his rushing ability but I am a bit more skeptical in other aspects of his game.
   • 6.3 – Bridge QB – NFL Starter
5. Bo Nix
   • Because I did not do a full writeup on Nix, I will write a bit more. I ended up being higher on Nix in the end than I thought I would. He shows a strong willingness to throw to the middle of the field which is an important quality in today’s NFL. He also gets rid of the ball quickly and should be an asset as a distributor in most offenses. However, he is a 24 year old prospect who mainly became good once he transferred to a school that relied a ton on short passing and distributing rather than being asked to lead the team. As was the case entering this year, Nix threw 67% of his passes within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage which is higher than any prospect I have seen. When your offense chooses to take the ball out of your hands quickly with less thinking, I can’t help but view that as a negative. In the end, I could see Nix succeeding in an offense that just wants someone who gets rid of the ball quickly and will do what the coach tells him. Having a QB who is accurate in the short and intermediate routes and rarely takes sacks is a good thing. Although, I think Nix’s floor is reasonably high, his ceiling is pretty capped.
   • 6.3 – Bridge QB – NFL Starter
6. Michael Penix
   • Similar to Nix, I will do a longer writeup on Penix. Michael Penix is one who has consistently won games at the college level and has a very strong arm. He led Washington to the title game on the back of his arm. He is tremendous at avoiding sacks and is a great distributor down the sidelines to his receivers. However, his inability to throw over the middle of the field will really hurt him at the next level. He seems to only want to throw outside the numbers and will often throw the ball up to his great receivers. Also, given his extensive injury history, he is unwilling to make plays with his legs and seems scared to get hit. Although he avoids sacks, pressure really seems to get to him. When teams pressure him, it really takes him off his game. I think there is a scenario in which Penix is a successful pro, but given his age and weaknesses I would not be willing to make that bet.
   • 5.9 – Backup Future – Bridge QB
7. Michael Pratt
   • Personally, I struggle to see Pratt as a long-term NFL starter.  He does have some traits that will be coveted by NFL teams as he is a pretty solid athlete and I think he has above average arm talent.  He has also been a pretty consistent passer throughout his college career while also playing on a productive team. However, the areas where I think he will have the most issues at the NFL level is with his processing and pocket navigation. When watching Pratt, I struggle to see him making through reads. He appears to lock on a guy early and if not he will tuck and run or take a sack. He also has a tendency to force throws.  The aspect of his game where I see the biggest detriment is his ability to navigate the pocket. I believe his pocket navigation and slower processing really hurts him when combined.  At the college level he was able to escape arm tackles prior to tucking to run but in the NFL I see his sack rate being even higher than his career Pressure to Sack rate of 23.8%. In the end, Pratt has some characteristics that could make him a good long-term backup option, but I struggle to see him as a starter.
   • 4.8 – Roster Spot Candidate – Backup Future
8. Spencer Rattler
   • Spencer Rattler is a quarterback who I have a tough time betting on. He had some moments in his 5th season of promise, but there are too many red flags for me to trust him. His career pressure to sack rate is over 20% and the exciting parts of his game from his early years of college ended up mainly getting nixed once he settled in at South Carolina. He was once an exciting prospect due to his willingness to take shots down the field and his arm talent. In the end, he became a low ADOT passer (7.5 in his 5th year) and one who rarely took shots down the field. Also, when he did he would often throw the ball into harms way. I am also still not a huge believer in his processing as he still forces way too many passes for a guy who will likely be competing as a backup once he gets drafted into the NFL. It is possible that Rattler finally figured it out in his later seasons, but I am still am unwilling to buy into it.
   • 4.5 – Roster Spot Candidate – Backup Future
9. Joe Milton
   • Joe Milton has shown every possible reason that he is not a great quarterback, but I still am too in love with the tools to fully give up. On the off chance that he figures it out, I would draft him.
   • 3.4 – Practice Squad QB – Roster Spot Candidate

*QB Scale:

10. Future Hall of Famer – Multiple Super Bowls, among the All-time greats.

9. Future Star – Will challenge for MVP(s) and Super Bowls consistently.

8. Good NFL starter – If the stars align he can win a Super Bowl and maybe challenge for MVP.

7. NFL starter – Will be a reliable starter who will get a 2nd contract. Team will look to upgrade at some point.

6. Bridge QB/Spot starter  –  Probably not a franchise guy, but will be a good backup and a starter if necessary.

5. Backup future – Will be a guy who a team will feel comfortable if they are in relief but not a long-term option.

4. Roster spot candidate – Will challenge for roster spots and could play in a pinch. Likely bouncing from team to team.

3. Practice Squad QB – Likely will not make a gameday roster but will be good enough to make a practice squad.

2. Will get a look early on – Likely will not make a practice squad but will get the opportunity.

1. Not a NFL QB at all