Nick’s Rankings

Tier 1: Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward

Tier 2: Jaxson Dart, Kyle McCord, and Dillon Gabriel

Tier 3: Tyler Shough, Quinn Ewers, Riley Leonard, and Jalen Milroe

Tier 4: Will Howard and Seth Henigan

2025 QB Rankings

1. Shedeur Sanders
   • I have continued to go back and forth on Shedeur Sanders for several months. He obviously has some intrigue due to his dad being NFL HOF Deion Sanders, but also he produces pretty well statistically. However, it is no secret that the elite bloodlines have not resulted in Sanders being a QB with elite tools. Pretty bizarre to have a very good NFL playing dad who succeeded one way and his son succeeds in a much different way. Even with that being said, Sanders’s limitations athletically are a bit of a concern. He lets it be an issue with his play style. For whatever reason, he consistently thinks that he can avoid pass rush by scrambling and can find an angle. That is the biggest issue that Sanders needs to fix when going to the NFL and I think he eventually will. After watching him more, I do not think he has an issue seeing the pressure for the most part. His biggest issue is that he thinks he is invincible back there. When getting to the NFL, he needs a bit of a reality check on what he can and can’t get away with. After all, he even had a high pressure to sack rate when he was at Jackson State. That alone has me a bit concerned. In the end though, the NFL is a different game and hopefully he will be able to set everything else aside and adjust his play style. Sanders playing a constant extend the play style will not work as well in the NFL due to his lack of athleticism and lack of high end arm talent. Those combined will make it tougher on him against the elite of elite athletes. Even with the negatives, I think Sanders has a real shot due to his passing ability. Contrary to other QB prospects in this draft, I think Sanders played in a more pro style offense and was able to read the field better than anyone else in the class. He does a great job of working through reads and makes great anticipation throws when he has his sights set on it. In particular, his chemistry with Travis Hunter makes me think that Sanders with a top receiver would be a great match. He is a QB who can get the most out of his weapons. He also throws a very catchable ball. He consistently gives his receivers a chance and will make DBs pay if they leave a receiver on an island. In general, I think Sanders has a chance to be a good NFL QB. With my mentioning of him altering his play style, I do think his ceiling is a bit lower though in the NFL. I think he has good playmaking skills but he needs to find a way to channel that to ensure the rest of his game does not fall apart. He has good enough size to be a NFL QB but I do not think he can sustain the level of hits that he did in college and be successful in the long-term. If he is able to manage his scrambling properly, I think he can be a successful NFL QB. I do think I could rationalize taking Sanders in the 1st round. He is someone who can solidify the position and will do an excellent job of getting the ball in his playmakers hands. I think landing at a spot where he can either sit for a bit and learn behind a veteran or be on a team with a ready made offensive line will be crucial. Without either of those two, I think the odds of him being successful drops quite a bit. 
   • Final Grade: 6.5 Bridge QB-NFL Starter
2. Cam Ward
   • I have gone back and forth on Cam Ward numerous times since the start of this past season. In general, I think ignoring the initial success of older more experienced prospects like Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix makes completely dismissing Cam Ward a bad decision. Although it remains to be seen how it affects their long-term outcomes, their age/experience definitely has helped their ability to transition in the short term. That is how I could see Ward having success early. I think Ward has displayed a good playmaking ability and has a good enough arm to make teams pay at the next level. I don’t think he has an elite arm like some others think, but I think it is above average/good. Another area where I am likely lower on him than consensus is his ability to playmake at the level the same way that he does in college. I do not view Ward as an above average athlete and I think he does not navigate pressure at the elite level of someone like Mahomes who can still be a playmaker outside the pocket despite his average athleticism. In my comp section below, I will go over my low end comparison that no one wants to hear but is actually realistic. Another thing with Ward that is a bit concerning to me is that he has a tendency to short circuit in the pocket. A bit odd but sometimes when his first read is not available he will almost pause in the pocket. https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxXuNw7wQgJPASEVURLDOuSUdO4T_e00iN?si=x-xGElUDd0-V-mvA
     As seen in the clip above it is something that he will need to improve on as the NFL will bring about a new offense for him and he will need to get better at working through his reads. If not, his sack total will only increase at the next level. Regardless, Ward has shown the ability to make any throw with his arm and is not lacking in confidence as that shows the upside with his arm at the next level. A team will want to keep him aggressive downfield similar to Jayden Daniels’s flip his last college season and into the NFL. Both Daniels and Ward were mainly dink and dunk QBs in their initial college seasons before exploding in their final year. I had concerns that Daniels would revert back to his prior years but luckily he didn’t in his first NFL season. I hope the same is the case for Ward, although a change to a more pro style offense could present issues. Ward has primarily played in an Air Raid offensive scheme and works mainly out of the shotgun. Going to a team where they want him under center more could present some challenges. I also worry about his reckless style of play. At this point in his career he likely is what he is, but finding a way to channel that will be goal number 1 for his eventual NFL coach.  Regardless, Ward has enough experience that I think he will translate okay. All in all, there is a lot to like with Ward. He will go to a team that will likely build the entire offense around him which I think will really help his transition to the NFL. Although he is not a guy I would take as early in the NFL draft as others are saying, I think drafting him at some point in the 1st round is okay.
     Low-end Comp:
     Although I do not view this as a perfect 1 to 1 comparison, I do see way too many similarities to ignore with Cam Ward and Kenny Pickett. They both were solid but left plenty to be desired prior to their final college season. Cam Ward transferred to Miami to be with a much better supporting cast and to be the top team in the ACC conference and Pickett was able to have Jordan Addison explode onto the scene and the offense exploded. In general, I do not think it is being talked about enough how fortunate Ward was with his situation at Miami. To keep with the similarities, they both never had particularly low Turnover Worthy Play rates and did not have high Big Time Throw rates until their final seasons. I think upside coincides a lot with a QBs ability to make high level throws and neither were too great at that throughout their college careers. I also think they both did a lot of playmaking their final season in a conference that did not have a lot of high level defenses and pass rushers. Kenny Pickett was not able to be a playmaker outside the pocket in the NFL as his athleticism no longer stood out. While I think Ward has a better chance of being able to do it successfully in the NFL, the comparison is tough to ignore. In the end I think Ward has a better chance of being a good NFL QB than Pickett had, but I thought putting the comparison out there would provide a different perspective.
   • Final Grade and thoughts: 6.3 Bridge QB-NFL Starter

Cam Ward	TDs	Ints	BTT%	TWP%	P2S%	Time to Throw
Super Sr.	43	7	6.3	3.3	15.9	2.93
Sr.	33	7	4.8	3.6	24.9	2.80
Jr.	28	9	1.9	3.4	21.6	2.97

Kenny Pickett	TDs	Ints	BTT%	TWP%	P2S%	Time to Throw
Super Sr.	47	7	5.2	2.8	19.3	3.19
Sr.	21	9	2.8	3.3	17.4	3.04
Jr.	15	9	3.5	3.4	14.0	3.03

3. Jaxson Dart

• Jaxson Dart is a guy who I am a fan of to an extent. He is a bit more toolsy than anticipated and he is able to escape the rush more than expected. Dart does appear to have an above average arm and good enough athleticism for the next level. I don’t think he has star traits but he doesn’t have ones that would hold him back. However, there are definitely some aspects that has me a bit hesitant on him. For one, he was the QB in an offense that is terrific at scheming open WRs and had one of the better play callers in the country. That overall, makes him a bit of a tough projection into the next level. In addition to that, he has some pocket issues to work through. Ole Miss did a great job of shoring up his weaknesses and were able to mask it with effective play calls and a good group of WRs. His tendency to tuck and run early is a concern that I saw. As said prior, Ole Miss did a great job of scheming guys open. Dart too often would tuck if his first read wasn’t there and also would be quick to make a checkdown. He will need time to develop in a system that helps him go through reads and helps to stabilize himself in the pocket.  Dart also showed an unwillingness to stick in the pocket and make a throw with pressure. I initially thought Dart was similar to McCarthy from a comp perspective, but this is where the two differ in a major way. He will need to grow more confident in himself in the pocket at the next level. In general, I feel it would be best for him to sit a bit upon getting to the NFL as it will definitely be an adjustment getting to a pro style offense.  Therefore, I think he is best suited to be drafted more in the 2nd-5th round range as it would be much more projection based and he doesn’t have the elite tools to be a round 1 project. 

• How can things go wrong at the next level?
  • I envision things going wrong at the NFL level similar to Zach Wilson. In general, I am a bit wary of QBs who play in an offense that relies on having a grasp of a system that will not translate well to the NFL. Dart was highly effective in Lane Kiffin’s scheme, but he was not making a ton of full field progressions and when things got difficult he would often speed through his options and result in scrambles or dump offs. I did not watch a ton of Zach Wilson’s film prior to him being drafted, but after studying his college tape a year ago I thought it was definitely foreseeable that he would struggle in a NFL offense. An experienced college QB with tools can make things look mighty easy in an offense with limited reads and a talented supporting cast. In 2024, 53% of Jaxson Dart’s passing plays consisted of play action. They relied a lot on RPOs and seemed to make a concerted effort to not do traditional drop backs. 
• Final Grade: 5.8 Backup Future-Bridge QB

4. Kyle McCord

• I was not expecting to like Kyle McCord as much as I did. I knew he performed pretty well statistically this year but I know he had his lumps as well. When digging into his tape, I was pleasantly surprised. He is a very good distributor of the football. More often than not he gets the ball out on time and does a great job of layering throws through the defense. One throw specifically really stood out against Miami where he was able to successfully drop a pass in over a linebacker and right before the safety. His confidence when throwing the ball is unmatched as there is no throw that is not a match for him. He is always willing to give his receiver a change and will put them in position to make a play. However, that can also be considered a weakness for McCord. While he is terrific at giving his receivers an opportunity to make a play, he tends to do this a bit too much. He has been fortunate to play with a good group of receivers at the college level and they would win more often than not on the outside which provided him with the confidence to make those kinds of throws. Another thing I noticed with McCord is when a play needs to be made, it seems as though McCord would dish off that responsibility to his receivers. Lastly, I like Kyle McCord quite a bit, but I think he has a few deficiencies that prevents me from being higher on him. I think he’s lacking in athleticism and in arm talent. To go along with that, I also think his lack of playmaking ability is something that will hold him back at the next level. I hope he can improve in other areas so that this won’t matter, but in the end, I think his upside is capped as is. He will likely need a good situation where a team has receivers that can win on the outside and a reliable slot target. I think Kyle McCord can make it as a NFL starter but it will largely be due to his ability as a distributor and he will need to be carried by talent around him. He is not the type of QB that will make a play with the game on the line, he will need someone else to win it. I would be comfortable drafting him from the end of the 2nd round to the 5th round of the NFL draft. 
• Grade: 5.5 Backup Future-Bridge QB

5. Dillon Gabriel

• If it is not broke, don’t fix it for Oregon. Bo Nix took a big jump in his final two years once Oregon simplified everything down to just short routes and occasional deep shots. Dillon Gabriel experienced very similar success in the same system. The Oregon system does require you to make quick reads and to get rid of the ball quickly, all of which Gabriel did quite well. Gabriel does not have the athleticism, arm talent, or sack avoidance that Nix possesses but if he gets in an offense where it doesn’t matter, who knows? Gabriel has some playmaking ability and overall I think he is good at navigating the pocket but due to his size, he is much easier to bring down than some of the other QBs in the draft. Also, although Gabriel has the ability to distribute the ball as well as anyone, he does lack the arm talent to push the ball outside the numbers and relies too much on timing to really be able to carve up a defense in an elite way at the NFL level. I don’t think Gabriel has the upside to warrant a high selection in the draft but I think you could do a lot worse than taking him in the 4th-6th round range. A team like the Browns or Saints who need a QB to get them through the next year or so could be an appealing team for Gabriel. Also, a team like the Dolphins who relies a lot on timing and pre snap reads could make Gabriel a desirable guy to backup Tua who has a similar skillset to Gabriel. He likely does not have what it takes to be a true franchise player, but he can be a guy who you can win some games with prior to getting that guy.
• Grade: 5.4 – Backup Future – Bridge QB

6. Tyler Shough

• I must say, Tyler Shough is a pretty entertaining watch. He is a true gunslinger and uses a lot of different arm angles to make effective throws. He also has pretty good tools. He has good arm strength and shows the ability to make any throw. I would not say that he has elite tier arm talent though as he doesn’t always get great juice on throws outside the numbers. Another important aspect of Shough’s profile is his age. Although the thought is often how old he would be for a second contract, I think the biggest issue with the age for Shough is how many weaknesses he still has and how he is still lacking in game experience. I think Shough’s footwork still needs quite a bit of work. He throws with all arm a lot of the time and throws off his back foot far too often. I have some long term injury concern with his shoulder due to his throwing motion which is not even included in his lengthy injury history. Shough also gets very jumpy in the pocket. In my opinion, he does not play in the pocket like someone who is as old as he is. With his level of arm talent, I would be willing to take a chance on a prospect with his profile, but with his age I am of the belief that he should already be a pretty refined player. He has the ability to make a variety of downfield throws that are very enticing and he has displayed a good amount of playmaking outside the pocket. That makes me willing to take a chance given that his lack of experience is largely due to injury and it is within the realm of possibility that he has real juice. However, the risk is far too great for me to feel comfortable taking him early. Not only his footwork concerns, but I also don’t think Shough is particularly great at short timing routes. He has a tendency to be late on those throws and is quick to abandon the pocket when he has an open receiver. All of this combined makes me skeptical to take Shough in the first 2 rounds. I think you could talk me into him in the 3rd round but even then, what is the best case scenario? Like I mentioned above, it is within the realm of possibilities that he develops some at the next level and becomes serviceable. I tend to think that does not happen and instead he is a guy that is possibly an upside backup who can lead a team in a pinch. Even taking the footwork and age out of it, Shough is likely to be a high sack QB who completed less than 60% of his passes in 3 of his last 4 games as a 6th year senior. I think it’s possible someone takes him earlier than expected, but having high expectations for Shough at the next level would be a mistake.
• Final Grade: 5.2 Backup Future-Bridge QB

7. Quinn Ewers

• Quinn Ewers is a QB that I was much lower on than consensus heading into last season. Coming off another up and down season, I will probably be around the new consensus or even still a bit low. Once a highly touted recruit, to me Ewers is still having trouble living up to that. He still has okay tools but I am having trouble still identifying them as good/elite. Even with that, I am struggling to see tools that elevate him when it comes to making up for his weaknesses. My biggest gripe with Ewers has been his lack of playmaking ability and unwillingness to scramble. He did make a bit of a change going into last season which had me a bit intrigued but instead of continuing to progress in that area, he had even fewer scrambles. Some of that could be the injury, but it is tough to give him the benefit of the doubt in that regard. I also thought that an area in which he regressed for the 2023 season was his pressure to sack rate. He had a pressure to sack rate of 13.9% in 2022 despite the short sample size. I thought maybe his 2023 pressure to sack rate of 25.2% might have been a fluke, but instead his 2024 rate stood at 23.2%. As mentioned above, for someone who does not provide a lot of plus traits in other areas, having a high pressure to sack rate makes it really difficult to be in on Ewers as a NFL prospect. That is a rate that is too high in my opinion to be a NFL QB. Quarterbacks who get sacked a lot at the NFL level tend to have a tough time sticking around unless they are elite in other areas. Without any playmaking ability outside the pocket and with him not being a running threat, Ewers will need to be a lower sack QB to be effective. Those are not the only weaknesses I see with Ewers. I see a QB who succeeds when plays are schemed up correctly and a player who struggles when it is not. He does not seem to process well in my eyes and struggles in the red zone when the field is shortened. I thought Steve Sarkisian kept him as the QB over Arch Manning because he was able to operate the offense effectively and listened to the proper reads. Rather than him being better than Manning, I think Sarkisian was simply more comfortable with Ewers. With that being the case, I think it is possible Ewers is a guy that can learn effectively in the right system in the NFL and can be an effective backup or maybe a backup to starter. At this point in his career, I do not view Ewers as an upside prospect that a team would bet on to eventually be a starter. I think he is more a guy that has the potential to become a good backup at the NFL level rather than a starter.
• Final Grade: 5.2 – Backup Future

8. Riley Leonard

• Riley Leonard is one who I was a huge fan of entering the 2023 season. I had him as my 3rd QB entering the season and saw someone who had a lot of untapped potential. Although I am a fan of Leonard’s game, the lack of progress in his passing ability leaves me doubting whether he will ever take that next step. Leonard seems to do his best within structure and is able to make plays with his legs when the play breaks down but does seem to struggle to make plays with his arm in space. With his style of play, I had hopes that he would develop in that area but unfortunately he has not.. Also, he appears to struggle when being forced to consistently make plays with his arm. He does have some traits that make him enticing regardless. Leonard is superhuman at avoiding sacks and is good at making defenders miss in open space. In the right system, I think Leonard has a chance to develop into being a plus backup and someone that could play well in relief. Given his limitations and lack of development with his arm, I struggle to see a guy that will ever become a long-term starting NFL QB. Especially given the likely low draft capital, I think it will be tough on Leonard at the NFL level minus a leap.  I think his positive traits give him a shot that a team falls in love with him and lets him develop. His play style and toughness that he showed in the college football playoff is tough to ignore.
• Final Grade: 5.1 – Backup Future

9.Jalen Milroe

• I go back and forth often on whether I am in on Milroe as a prospect. He obviously has some flaws that have me worried for his long-term outlook. I think some are correctable and some will likely haunt him for his whole career. In my opinion, Milroe appears to lack instincts for the QB position. He seems lost when it comes to navigating a pocket and seems to really lock in on reads when throwing from the pocket. His sack avoidance from the pocket will likely be an issue throughout his entire career. I think Alabama made efforts to curb that in 2024 but I still think it will largely be an issue.  Given these handicaps, I do however see a path to him improving in other areas. Milroe’s footwork is something that I see the NFL trying to fix right away and I see that improving. Although he started for 2 years at Alabama, he had two different coaching staffs which I think limited his development. When he lands with an organization in the NFL that will provide resources and development specifically for Milroe, I think he will see growth in this area. I also think there is a path in which he improves in the short/intermediate part of the field. When teams limited what Milroe could do with his legs, he struggled to beat teams with his arm when having to in the short game. With improved footwork and more reps, I think he can see growth in that area. He still has the tendency to try to push everything downfield but he did show the ability to make quick passes at times. With more coaching and experience it is within the realm of possibilities that he makes improvement in that area. Lastly, I think the biggest area that Milroe can correct is with his running. I don’t see a scenario in which Milroe’s legs are not a part of his game at the NFL level and in order for that to be his main asset he needs to minimize his wasted movements. He is a terrific athlete who can make plays with his feet but far too often he tries cutting back and looping around to the outside and it almost always burns him. He is not quick enough with his cuts to be that kind of runner so I think he will need to learn to primarily be a north and south runner. Is it possible his vision is not elite? Definitely. If that is the case I have a difficult time seeing him being a QB that a franchise leans on. I know I listed multiple ways in which he needs to improve in order to become a viable NFL QB and that could be far fetched. In the scenario in which it is not, I wouldn’t want to be a team that passed on him. He is already a good runner, has a plus arm, and is able to utilize the two of them together and can be an effective playmaker outside the pocket. If he improves in the areas listed above I could see Milroe becoming a franchise QB. Do I think it is likely? Probably not, which is why I would draft him somewhere in the late 2nd-4th round. Also, I think the scenario in which he pans out likely means a franchise will have to make a specific offense that works for him. Overall, I think getting early draft capital is critical for Milroe. If he falls outside of the 2nd round, I struggle to see a scenario in which a franchise is willing to turn the keys over to Milroe barring quick development. If for some reason he is draft in the 1st round or even the 2nd, I think a franchise’s commitment gives him a chance because they will be willing to build an offense around him.  It will be difficult to find a franchise that is willing to make a move like that but the case in which he develops makes drafting him worth it regardless. I think a franchise like the Jets would be ideal as they are looking for a new path forward as a franchise without a set offensive scheme in place and backing up a QB like Justin Fields who has similar flaws would be helpful. Also, drafting Milroe to be a backup at a spot like the Eagles or Colts could be a decent option. My final thoughts are that I think Milroe’s deficiencies at the QB position will ultimately be too much to overcome, but I think the scenario in which he makes strides in some areas provides him an opportunity.
• Grade: 4.7 Roster Spot Candidate – Backup future

10. Will Howard

• Howard to me is a solid college QB. He does a good job at avoiding sacks, has some athleticism, and can run when need be. In the NFL however, I struggle to see a lot that would make him worthy of being a top selection. He does not process quickly in my opinion. He was able to get the ball where it was needed at Ohio State but I do not think he did it quickly and benefited a lot from their elite weapons and good play calling. When asked to do more at the NFL level, I am not confident Howard would be capable. Also, although Howard can be a good runner, he rarely scrambles and does not do a lot of playmaking outside the pocket. He just seems to me to be a guy that can be serviceable with a lot of talent but will struggle mightily when having to lead a team without the talent. Given his playoff run at Ohio State, I think a team will draft him with the idea that he could develop into a backup. I could see a backup future for him, as I would draft him in the 6th-7th round.
• Final Grade: 4.2 Roster Spot Candidate-Backup

11. Seth Henigan

• Henigan is an experienced QB who has some ability as he stayed consistent from his freshman year to his senior year. He improved some but not enough to indicate enough improvement to bet on him continuing to grow at the next level.  He has an average arm, average athleticism, and does not avoid sacks at an elite level. Without an elite level trait to hang his hat on, I don’t view Henigan as much more than a Backup at the NFL level. There is some hope he can succeed in that role so I would be comfortable drafting him in the 6th-7th round range.
• Final Grade: 3.7 Practice Squad-Roster Spot Candidate

*QB Scale:

• 10. Future Hall of Famer – Multiple Super Bowls, among the All-time greats.
• 9. Future Star – Will challenge for MVP(s) and Super Bowls consistently.
• 8. Good NFL starter – If the stars align he can win a Super Bowl and maybe challenge for MVP.
• 7. NFL starter – Will be a reliable starter who will get a 2nd contract. Team will look to upgrade at some point.
• 6.  Bridge QB/Spot starter  –  Probably not a franchise guy, but will be a good backup and a starter if necessary.
• 5.  Backup future – Will be a guy who a team will feel comfortable if they are in relief but not a long-term option.
• 4.  Roster spot candidate – Will challenge for roster spots and could play in a pinch. Likely bouncing from team to team.
• 3.  Practice Squad QB – Likely will not make a gameday roster but will be good enough to make a practice squad.
• 2. Will get a look early on – Likely will not make a practice squad but will get the opportunity.
• 1. Not a NFL QB at all