Nick’s Early Rankings

Tier 1: Drew Allar, Arch Manning, and Garrett Nussmeier.

Tier 2: LaNorris Sellers, Sam Leavitt, and Aidan Chiles.

Tier 3: Cade Klubnik, Sawyer Robertson, Carson Beck, and Darian Mensah.

Tier 4: Avery Johnson, John Mateer, and Fernando Mendoza.

Tier 5: Jackson Arnold

As is common practice for early mock drafts, these rankings are compiled under the pretense that all draft-eligible players will declare for the 2026 NFL Draft. I did not get to all draft eligible QBs but I got to as many as I could.

1. Drew Allar
   • Drew Allar is a prospect that has a lot of polarizing opinions at this point. The more casual college football viewer and those that do not delve into the nuances of the game are not too big of fans of Allar. There are some that scout prospects who just don’t see the potential having been reached at this point and are thus out on Allar. Others are still very high on Allar. After having watched the majority of Allar’s junior season, I was not as enthused with him as a prospect. I thought maybe he was one of those talented QB prospects who just rode his traits until they became just traits rather than assets. However, I thought something seemed to click with Allar late in the season. For added context: To his detriment, I have been under the impression that in his first season as a starter at Penn State, Allar was encouraged to take care of the football and avoid turnovers. Because of how good Penn State was, it made sense on the surface, but I think that stunted Allar’s growth quite a bit. Even into his second season as the starter, I thought he was much more conservative than he needed to be and played a very risk averse style. That can be good for some QBs, but for Allar and the skill set he possesses, I do not think that is the style that will set him up for success down the line. Late in the season though, I thought Allar started becoming much more aggressive and decisive. The Oregon game especially, I thought Allar really showcased his potential. Given that Oregon was the top team and Penn State was the underdog, I think Allar took it upon himself to lead them to victory. Although they lost, the display in the playmaking aspect of his game and his willingness to make quick decisions showed that he had it in him. My hope is that Allar will build off that and will be in position to have a great senior season that positions himself to be a top draft pick. Given his ability to make any throw, his size and athleticism, and his ability to navigate pressure; Allar still is a prospect that the NFL will wait on. In addition, Allar improved in the majority of statistical categories from his Sophomore season.  He does still have other areas to work on as well. He needs to improve his footwork and become much more consistent with his delivery. Allar seems to be afraid to get hit at times in my eyes. That is an aspect of his game that might follow him, but I hope he gains enough confidence in himself to stand in the pocket and deliver the ball and take a hit. As I mentioned above, he does a great job at navigating the pocket and seeing pressure, but the times in which he knows he will get hit results in him speeding up his process and not getting a proper throw off. Overall, Allar has good ball placement so it hasn’t resulted in a ton of turnovers at the college level but it will catch up to him in the NFL if he does not improve in that aspect. To sum it up, Drew Allar is still a Quarterback that I am very high on and think he has a chance to blow up in his final college season. If he has a season in which he is more aggressive and maintains his other good qualities, it would be very difficult for me not to have him as the top QB in the draft. Even with the upside traits, Allar will need to build off his late season play and improve in other areas to be a QB that is worthy of the upside label.
2. Arch Manning
   • Arch Manning is probably the most talked about football player in the country and goes into his third college season with a ton of hype. Some might be skeptical, but I think the hype is plenty justified at this point. Early numbers of a high Big Time Throw rate of 6.4% and a low Turnover Worthy Play Rate of 1.9%. He also did that with a high ADOT and a good average Time to Throw at 2.74 seconds. All of these numbers are very positive for a young QB and indicate high upside. He also has very solid tools to go with it as he is a good athlete and has good arm talent. Those alone makes him a prospect worth betting on even if it is a small sample size. The biggest weakness in Arch’s game is his pocket awareness. That is something I noticed when scouting him coming into college and in his limited college snaps, it is still a concern for me. So far, Manning has been pressured on 27 dropbacks in college and sacked 7 times. That leads to a Pressure to Sack rate of 25.9% which is rather high for a top prospect. A reason why I am worried about this number with the small sample is that it was an issue in high school as well and I have seen the warning signs on his tape. He seems to lack the awareness to see rushers at times which is a bit of a concern going forward. Perhaps this is something he is able to improve on and it makes this argument useless, but I tend to think he lacks the required pocket instincts at this point in time. If he is able to get over this issue and it is something he improves on as he matures than Arch is primed to be a top prospect in the coming draft and I would bet on him to succeed. However, if he does not improve in this area I would be a bit hesitant on his lofty expectations. Regardless, he should still have a productive year as he is very good in a clean pocket and when he is aware of the rushers he does a good job of navigating the situation and is willing to stand in the pocket to take a hit. My concern would be more at the NFL level when he is facing a high level defense with coordinators who know how to get pressure on young QBs. Even with that issue, Manning has a lot of talent that could make that just a blimp on his otherwise good profile. He has the physical tools and aggressive play style that should make him a monster if he were to hit. A lot of people tend to think that Arch is more likely to be a 2027 NFL Draft guy rather than 2026 but I am more on the fence. I think he will be a 2026 draft candidate if he has as good of a year as his potential would suggest. At the end of the day, going back to school for another year can be a good thing in that you will get more reps but can also be a negative because it provides scouts with more opportunity to put you under a microscope. I am of the belief that Manning will probably declare for the 2026 NFL Draft and will be a top selection. Time will tell if he is able to shore up his pocket deficiencies and make that a reality.

3. Garrett Nussmeier
   • I was admittedly very high on Garrett Nussmeier entering last season. He was my top QB and although he didn’t declare a year ago, I am still pretty high on Nussmeier. He is a very aggressive passer with plenty of arm talent and good playmaking ability. He also is very good at avoiding sacks. He navigates pockets better than the majority of passers and is able to get rid of the ball quickly. Nussmeier is able to make throws at a variety of different arm angles that allows him to get rid of the ball quickly and can avoid rushers. He is also able to make any throw on the field and is not shy to do it. He throws effectively outside the numbers and is able to test tight windows down the field. One issue I see with Nussmeier is that he seems to get a bit trigger happy. When he decides on where the ball is going, he goes in that direction. He has a ton of confidence in his ability and feels he can make a play regardless of whether the defense knows it is coming. I would like to see his confidence paired a bit more with better decision making in his final season to really solidify himself as a top prospect. Despite not having a ton of scrambles and lacking top athleticism, Nussmeier makes up for it with great sack avoidance and pocket navigation. He still is able to make plays out of structure and can throw well on the run. Even with his lack of great athleticism I still think Nussmeier has a ton of potential. His blend of playmaking ability, arm talent, confidence, and sack avoidance makes him a QB prospect that should get strong consideration at the top of next year’s draft. If he takes a jump in decision making, he could be a legit threat to be the 1st pick.
4. LaNorris Sellers
   • LaNorris Sellers is a ton of fun to watch. He is absolutely electric with the ball in his hands and is very difficult to bring down. He frequently bounces off of defenders and can make defenders miss at all points. Sellers is one of the better runners at the QB position that I have scouted. You can build a solid offense around his rushing ability alone. He appears to have good vision and has a unique ability to break tackles. For someone who avoids sacks by being so elusive in the pocket, he still has a higher pressure to sack rate at 19.1%. A lot of that I believe was due to his mere volume of pressures in 2024. Although I do not think South Carolina had an elite offensive line, I think a lot of those pressures were on Sellers. He had a very high time to throw rate of 3.30 in 2024. Sellers has to improve his pocket awareness. With all of the positives of Sellers’s rushing ability, he still leaves a lot to be desired in the passing game. I think he really struggles to navigate past his first read at the moment and does not appear to process at an elite level. In the games I watched of him, teams started to read exactly where he was going late in games. He has a tendency to telegraph where he is going right away and either throws it or goes into full scramble mode. His play style at the moment leads to passes to his initial read or scramble with the hopes of creating magic with his legs. He did show it some, but Sellers does not appear to be a particularly great thrower on the run. For his style, he will absolutely need to improve on that in order to reach the level of upside that he possesses. Caleb Williams is one who was able to be a high NFL Draft pick despite his high time to throw but Williams is far more of a threat outside the pocket with his arm than Sellers at this point in time. All in all, I like Sellers and think he has a lot of potential if he develops properly. In order to reach that next level, Sellers needs to make big strides in the passing game. I can see a scenario in which Sellers shows improvement in the passing game and competes for a top draft pick next April, while I can also see a scenario in which Sellers is viewed as more of a Riley Leonard level of a QB rather than one who we view as a potential playmaking QB at the next level. Time will tell.
5. Sam Leavitt
   • Sam Leavitt is a pretty talented guy. Overall, he has some very enticing traits. I would say he has good athleticism and is a good runner. He appears to have good vision and is willing to put his body on the line. Leavitt uses that athleticism to his advantage with the way he is a playmaker outside the pocket. Not only is he an effective scrambler, but he does it with a pressure to sack rate of just 13.3% on a good amount of pressures. If he is able to keep that up for another season, I think Leavitt has a chance to be a 1st round pick in 2026. Leavitt does not have a great arm and needs to get quicker at making decisions, but avoiding sacks while also being an effective scrambler is a great place to start. He does not have the arm talent of a Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes, but they were able to keep low pressure to sack rates while being effective scramblers at the college level. That is what sets them apart in the NFL and that is where the high end upside of Leavitt would land. On the flip side, Leavitt needs to prove that he can make throws outside the numbers with consistency. He seems to struggle to throw out routes and passes outside the numbers 10+ yards down the field with timing. That is something Allen and Mahomes are able to do effectively and something that prevents Leavitt from reaching that sort of outcome. He also needs to get better at making quicker decisions. Far too often he ends up scrambling at the first sign of pressure and ends up making throws more difficult on himself. Improving his timing will only make the times he scrambles more effective. I would love to see Arizona State rely on Leavitt more in the pass game and less schemed up plays in 2025. An increased Big Time Throw rate(13 for just 3.6%)  would also be a huge added bonus for Leavitt in the 2025 season. Showing that he is willing and able to make high level throws would be a big step up. Regardless, if he can handle the increased workload and can maintain his efficiency, the upside is there for an early NFL draft pick. 
6. Aidan Chiles
   • There are definitely going to be some reading this that are shocked to see Chiles rated this highly. But in my opinion, you could make the argument that Aidan Chiles has the highest ceiling in college football. His play style is a ton of fun to watch and it is one that could lead to a lot of upside at the next level. Chiles has the ability to make any throw on the field. He is able to make throws outside the hashes with accuracy and timing, which is very rare at the college level. He also plays with a very aggressive mindset which leads to a lot of high variance plays at the current moment. Another area where I am really encouraged by Chiles is his pocket navigation. For a guy who was sacked 27 times in 2024, I thought he did a very good job of avoiding sacks for the most part. He had a bit of a higher Pressure to Sack rate at 18.9%, but he was pressured often and the majority of those were natural pressures rather than Chiles running into pressure. I think he does a good job at noticing pressures early and navigating them to create throwing windows. If the protection is a bit better in 2025, I would not be surprised to see Chiles’s sack rate closer to the 15% range rather than 20%. Having the arm talent and athleticism to go with good pocket awareness provides you with a great starting point as a prospect and something for Chiles to build on. However, he needs to do a much better job of protecting the football and needs to make better decisions. Largely, Chiles needs to improve his decision making as I believe that will help tremendously with him taking care of the ball. A lot of that will improve just by having more experience. As a first year starter on a bad power conference team, it was not an easy situation for Chiles to navigate. He was often faced with having to lead his team from behind and make a lot of plays himself. Given that Michigan State has an improved roster, I expect Chiles to put less pressure on himself and make better decisions. In a lost season I think it was best to test his limits and find areas for him to improve. I am hoping a full offseason as the starter provided Chiles the confidence in his receivers and with himself in the offense to cut down on his poor mistakes. After all, I thought Chiles did a good job of leading the team against the best of the best and with a bit better of a defense they would have given him chances to win some of those games. Instead, it appeared they pulled off the gas early and played more with the idea of getting out healthy rather than with a win. So hopefully the improved roster provides Chiles with the opportunity to challenge some of the better teams on their schedule and show off his true potential.  I would not be surprised at all to see Chiles make a huge jump entering this season and push himself up draft boards. He has the tools and is playing in more of a prostyle offense that NFL teams covet. He also had a lot put on him by Head Coach Jonathan Smith as 70% of his drop backs were traditional rather than play action. This shows me that he believes in Chiles and would not put that much on him if he did not think it would benefit him in the long run. If he can cut down his turnovers and be a bit more accurate, I could see Chiles challenge to be a 1st round pick in 2026. I do believe the most likely scenario is he makes a jump and puts himself in position to enter next offseason as a prime candidate to be at the top of the 2027 NFL Draft. Regardless, I expect the NFL to be highly intrigued by Chiles given his tools and play style that oozes potential. 
7. Cade Klubnik
   • Early on in Cade Klubnik’s career at Clemson, I was a fan of his upside as a playmaker. I thought he has an ability to get out of the pocket and throw on the run and could develop into a NFL QB in that way. However, where Klubnik has landed in his career is as a QB who is at his best getting rid of the ball quickly. The quicker he gets rid of the ball the better and the longer he holds onto the ball the higher likelihood of a negative play ensuing for Klubnik. While he does a good job of preventing turnovers when scrambling, I do not view him as a playmaker outside the pocket. I do think Klubnik has developed into a QB who is either effective at quick reads or pays close attention to the coach on his earpiece. He has a tendency to stare down reads however and will run if the first read is covered. In his final season, I would like to see Klubnik take more of a step as a playmaker and as a QB who can read the field more effectively. If he can improve at throwing on the run and can work through reads at a higher rate, I think he could eventually fight his way into the later part of the 1st round or 2nd. I do not think he has the high level tools to become an early 1st round QB as he has average-good athleticism and about average arm talent. At this time, Klubnik’s downfield passing game is not potent enough to elevate an NFL offense into a high-level unit. In order to make up for these, Klubnik needs to expand on his breakout season and continue to take another step in 2025. 
8. Sawyer Robertson
   • I have to admit, I did not know what to expect when digging into Sawyer Robertson, but after watching him I think he is definitely an intriguing prospect. Overall, I am pretty impressed with his tools. He is a good athlete and he appears to have a pretty strong arm. Robertson makes throws outside the numbers with relative ease. This could also be that he is quick at getting rid of the ball and does a pretty good job at anticipating. He also has very solid straight line speed, which definitely surprised me a bit. I do wish he was able to utilize his athleticism more as a playmaker outside the pocket. He instead just uses it to run, as he has not shown much ability to be a playmaker with his arm outside the pocket. This does limit his upside a bit in my eyes as he struggled a bit on later downs when his only option was throwing from the pocket or running. He also appears a bit mechanical in the pocket and has a bit of a windy throwing motion. I am curious to see if an offseason where he has cemented himself as the starter allows him to play a bit more fluid. Based on last year’s film, his movements in the pocket did not seem real fluid and lacked creativity. He seemed to struggle a bit when under pressure. He was not pressured a ton last season and a lot of that is how quickly he got rid of the ball. At times he would simply throw the ball up and hope his receiver would make a play. I would not be opposed to seeing him hold the ball a bit longer if it meant him being more careful with the ball.  In the end, I think Robertson is a prospect that I will be tracking pretty closely this season. He came a bit out of nowhere last year and showed good flashes. I don’t think he flashed enough to warrant a top of the draft consideration but another year in which he improves and I will definitely take notice. I might like his tools better than most even if I do not see a ton of upside.
9. Carson Beck
   • Carson Beck probably is what he is at this point in his career, but I think he has received a bit too much criticism from his play last season. He was a bit more careless with the ball than he has been and did not take a jump that some were hoping he would. I think the lack of receiving options for the majority of the year and the lack of run game made it difficult for Beck to play his game. I do not think he is a high upside player that will become a superstar at the next level, but he is someone that could be useful in a pro style offense that requires timing. When he is not asked to do too much, he is a solid player that a team can rely on. In the end, I think he is probably a backup at the NFL level that can start games and do just fine. I do not think a team will draft him in the first round due to his lower ceiling but he should be fine in a role similar to a Bo Nix type. In a timing based offense I would feel comfortable with Carson Beck leading the offense. In 2023 with an average Time to Throw at 2.39 seconds he was highly effective and had the Georgia offense humming, but in 2024 when his average TTT was at 2.52 he was less effective. In the end, barring a massive jump I think Beck is someone I would be comfortable drafting in the 2nd-4th round of the 2026 NFL Draft. I think NFL GMs/Head Coaches will be more of a fan of Carson Beck than the average fan.
10. Darian Mensah
    • When I first heard Duke offered Darien Mensa a large NL contract I was expecting more of a high upside kind of player when turning on his tape. I thought that Duke had made a projection and Mensah had the ability to develop into a high end quarterback prospect. After watching him, I realized that Duke paid Mensah for his floor. I think Darian Mensah has a relatively high floor as a quarterback and has the potential to really hone in on his strengths. I think Mensah is lacking in terms of tools as he does not have great arm talent and is lacking in athleticism. I also think he is lacking a bit when it comes to strength. However I think Mensah is a very accurate passer and does a very good job of anticipating where receivers will be. He has some of the best ball placement in the class and throws a very catchable ball. I do think there is a shot that he can play himself into an early round draft pick at the next level if he can continue to develop as a quarterback and can make strides reading defenses. Also, will be important to see that he can translate to a different offense as Tulane does a good job at scheming open receivers. All in all, I am probably higher on Mensah’s potential than most. I think there is probably a better shot at this point that he slots into the 2027 draft rather than 2026 due to the lack of reps at the power conference level and overall inexperience. Also, given the lack of tools I think teams will be more likely to want a bigger sample size of high level passing.
11. Avery Johnson
    • Avery Johnson is a pretty fun player to watch. He is a very good runner and overall has pretty good tools. Unfortunately at this point in his career, he is pretty lacking in the passing game. When it comes to making a play, he is a lot more likely to make it with his legs rather than his arm. The hope is that eventually he can develop in the passing game to the point where he can be relied upon. Without being an effective passer, he is still a pretty good player, but in order to reach his full potential in the NFL he will need to develop some sort of passing game that he can rely on. My hope is that eventually he can adjust his playing style similar to Cade Klubnik. That would mean cutting down on his time to throw and becoming a quick passing QB. This would limit his downfield passing and playmaking ability but would make him effective as a passer enough to pair with his running ability. He is already a very good rusher but he would be even better with the threat of the pass. He could still utilize his playmaking ability in space on later downs but having a quick passing game would be huge for Johnson. Obviously this does require him to make a leap with his decision making and for him to get much quicker at processing. Perhaps he can make a jump without having to completely change his play style but given his current ability, I think it would be the smartest decision for his future. However, he would have the highest upside if he remained a playmaking QB and became a better decision maker. I think this is the route they go as he might not be an accurate enough passer to become a quick game QB. Regardless of what route he decides, Johnson has potential to get to the next level if he makes a jump as a passer. He needs an identity through the air and I hope they made a decision on that this offseason. Johnson has potential to develop into a high round draft pick, I just would be surprised if he did that in 2026 at this point in time.
12. Fernando Mendoza
    • I am not sure where the hype is coming from with Mendoza. I would be very shocked if he declares for the 2026 NFL Draft. His tools are not impressive to me, he lacks strength, and he takes far too many sacks for a guy with his play style. In my opinion, I struggle to see many traits that make him appealing to the NFL. His arm strength is average and he is not a quick decision maker to make the lack of arm strength irrelevant. He also does not display great athleticism or playmaking ability outside the pocket. He has some ability as a runner but rarely uses it to his advantage as a passer. With all that being said, his biggest weakness to me is what happens in the pocket. He gets happy feet far too often and that results in poor footwork. That is something he must improve on to have any sort of chance to be a NFL player. He also lacks strength which makes him very vulnerable to sacks. That is also something he must improve. Unless Mendova sees big improvement in these areas, I do not envision him being a high draft pick kind of player. He does appear to have good instincts which makes him a bit appealing and appeared to do a good job running the Cal offense effectively. Mendoza is an accurate passer when given time. He has good ball placement and will find the open guy. They designed quite a few deep drops throughout the season which allowed him time to throw while taking the rush out of his view. That could be because of the quality of the Cal offensive line, but it also could be due to Mendoza’s limitations in navigating the pocket. He seems to lack pocket awareness and struggles to see rushers too often. Also, a lot of the big plays from Cal last season were on designed plays and screen passes. It is possible Mendoza develops into a NFL player eventually, but I personally do not see it happening. I struggle to see much upside with him which makes his path to being a productive pro that much tougher. He is a ways away from being on my radar as a NFL guy and that is pretty damning for a player entering his 4th college season.
13. John Mateer
    • John Mateer is a pretty fun watch. He is a good playmaker and does a lot of good things out of structure. He also is a very creative passer as he finds numerous ways to get rid of the ball and make a play for his team. Mateer is also an effective runner who will put his body on the line for his team. I do however think that there are multiple areas where he needs to improve. Mateer is a bit of a mess inside the pocket. He is not very good within structure and consistently drifts in the pocket. He also needs to get better with timing routes and find ways to get rid of the ball quickly. Far too often I saw a free rusher going after Mateer and he would often be unprepared and would scramble rather than go to his quick read. Even getting a bit better presnap will help him improve quite a bit. I would also like to see him trust himself a bit more in the pocket. He has his moments of staying in the pocket to make a throw but he has a tendency to drift at the first sign of pressure and escape the pocket. For how many areas where he needs to improve, I do wonder if the 2025 season might be a bit of a struggle with the jump up in competition. Escaping the pocket in the Mountain West and in the SEC are two completely different things. I worry that his lack of top athleticism and his average-above average arm talent will make the transition a bit steep. Overall, I expect the 2027 NFL Draft to be a more realistic outcome for Mateer. With how much work he needs at pocket navigation and the jump in competition, I think a year of transition is the most likely outcome. He has potential to rise but I still see more of a great college player ceiling rather than a true NFL franchise guy.
14. Jackson Arnold
    • I still think Jackson Arnold has some talent. He had a bit of a rough year as he was not able to hold the QB job at Oklahoma for the whole season and had some periods of poor play. He struggled mightily against pressure and did not make a lot of plays downfield. He is very good at getting rid of the ball quickly and is at his best making quick decisions. When his initial read is not there, things tend to spiral for Arnold. He took way too many sacks last season and did not do a great job of making plays out of structure. For Arnold, I think he needs to become a quick read QB who gets rid of the ball quickly on every snap and mixes in occasional deep shots. I struggle to see a scenario in which Arnold’s Time to throw is 2.92 or higher as it was last season. He is likely not going to survive as a guy who is a playmaker the majority of the time. Becoming a version of Bo Nix once he got to Oregon should be the long-term goal for Arnold. The situation was not great at Oklahoma last season as he did not have a great offensive line and his receivers were hurt the majority of the year. Perhaps the jump in skill talent will help Arnold realize his potential and blossom into a high level QB. However, the poor situation at Oklahoma did bring some warts to the forefront that are difficult to ignore. I suspect that Arnold will be a 2027 or 2028 draft guy regardless as he will need to get the tape from Oklahoma fully removed before the NFL will give him a serious look.

*This analysis utilizes advanced metrics and grading data from Pro Football Focus (PFF).