Nick’s QB Rankings

Tier 1: Bryce Young and CJ Stroud

Tier 2: Anthony Richardson, Clayton Tune, and Will Levis

Tier 3: Stetson Bennett and Hendon Hooker

Tier 4: Tanner McKee, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Jaren Hall

1. Bryce Young – Alabama
   • Most pro ready QB of the class. He should be the best rookie QB by a pretty significant margin in my opinion.  His intangibles really set him apart to me: Toughness, Moxy, and Poise.  I believe he can elevate the talent around him as well as anyone and can make winning plays that not many others can.  He is not afraid to stand in the pocket and take a hit, which is huge for someone at his size.  He also graded out as the best QB in the class by PFF and was terrific under pressure.  All signs point to him being able to be a successful QB at the next level.  However, the biggest concern for him is his size.  I don’t really view it to be that much of a negative in the short-term as he has proven he can take hits and get back up, and also that he can escape the pass rush as well as anyone.  My biggest concern would be the long-term implications of his size and whether he can consistently stay healthy throughout the course of a long career.  I think he should be the best rookie QB from the jump, I am just worried about where he will stand in 5 years.  Although he did play at Alabama, I think the talent around him has been down compared to what previous Alabama QBs played with.  Young has been terrific at elevating the talent around him and putting them in position to succeed.  I have no doubt that he will make the most of the talent around him in the NFL and be a great leader for a franchise.
2. CJ Stroud – Ohio State
   • Going into the season, I had Stroud as my top QB in the class. I did not think he was necessarily the best QB at that point in time, but I thought he would progress to be the best QB. Probably a bit different from others’ opinions, I would say Stroud has the highest upside of the class. His ball placement is one of the best I’ve seen from a college prospect.  His back shoulder throws are top notch and he can stretch the defense vertically as well with a strong arm. Contrary to the opinion of others, I do not view his athleticism as an issue. I believe he has the ability to make plays with his legs and I think he eventually will add that to his game. At Ohio State it was never really a need for their offense and I don’t think Stroud felt that was something that would benefit the offense. Stroud appears to be a big believer in the offense and did not have the confidence to go off script. I believe that will come in time and when it does, Stroud can really take his game to new heights. His unwillingness to make plays with his feet made him much easier to defend and I believe that contributed a lot to his struggles under pressure. If a team at the next level is able to work with him on when to make a play with his feet then I think Stroud could enter the next echelon of NFL QBs. I believe Stroud is that good of a passer. When kept clean in the pocket there are few in the NFL better than Stroud, he just needs to find other ways to beat the defense to keep the pressure from getting to him. I believe Stroud has solid off script ability, as he showed quite a bit against Georgia when it was needed most. Was that a one off or was Stroud holding that part of himself back because it wasn’t needed? I chose to believe the second part and we will soon figure out how true that is. I would draft Stroud at the very top of the draft. I think he is too good and his potential is too high to pass on him for guys that are much further away from getting to Stroud’s level even with no improvements.
3. Anthony Richardson – Florida
   • Although I do not think Richardson is as developed as a passer as some of the prospects below him, I do think his upside is a bit higher.  I don’t see Richardson developing as a passer as well as some others do, but his athletic ability really raises his floor.  He has the athleticism to make a difference at the NFL level.  Not only was his testing top notch, but he plays like someone who would test off the charts athletically.  He should be able to step on a NFL field and be able to make plays with his legs.  Richardson is among the best QBs in the draft at avoiding sacks and a lot of that is because of his athleticism.  Add in the fact he has a very good arm and processes well, and someone should really get excited for him.  Going into this year I thought the hype for Richardson being a 1^st round pick in 2023 was a bit crazy.  I am someone who believes the quarterback position requires quite a bit of reps at the college level in order to be somewhat prepared for the NFL. That is something Richardson is severely lacking in heading into this years draft.  Unfortunately for him, the NFL does not yet have a developmental league for Richardson to get added reps.  This makes his case very interesting to me.  Although I do like his tools quite a bit, the lack of reps and the lack of opportunity to get reps without harming his confidence or play style has me quite concerned.  It is very difficult to throw a young quarterback into the NFL without the necessary experience.  His athleticism should help him get by temporarily, but can a team build an offense around him that will allow him to progress while also being successful?  That is the million-dollar question.  Richardson appears to process well and makes solid enough decisions with the ball.  Areas like footwork and the ability to alter release speeds really needs some work.  At this time he primarily throws bullet passes and lob passes, he will need to learn to incorporate touch passes into his game.  His short area accuracy really suffers without that type of throw.  He completed just 80% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage and 58%(!) within 0-9 yards of the line of scrimmage.  From what I have found, there are very few NFL QBs that have lower numbers.  While some like to blame the talent around him, Richardson has outlier bad short area accuracy that is more than just a result of a poor supporting cast.  Richardson is one who needs to get drafted into the right situation.  He needs an organization who is very delicate with how he is prepped to be a starter and what offense they will use with him under center.  If a team expects him to play early and wants him to conform to their offense, Richardson will likely flame out.  I think with the right situation Richardson can develop into a high level QB, but patience is very important with him.  I believe a top 5 pick is a bit too high for Richardson given the high variance of outcomes, but I can be talked into anything after that given his strength and potential.
4. Clayton Tune – Houston
   • I’m a big believer that older prospects should not be drafted high if they are developmental guys. Tune on the other hand is an older prospect who I believe can step in and make an immediate impact.  He is one that played early in college and produced while also improving year over year.  I have not seen a lot of early round buzz for Tune so I would expect him to be drafted in a spot where he is competing to be a backup.  I think Tune is the type of player that if given a chance early he can steal a job and become the immediate future for a team.  Based on PFF grades, he is graded out as one of the better QB prospects in my opinion.  He is a QB who has a bit of a higher Pressure to Sack rate at 20% but that is not the highest in the class by any stretch.  I have more confidence in him to escape the pocket and throw on the run than quite a few prospects in the class.  He scrambled quite a bit for someone who is better known as a pocket passer. Also, outside of Richardson, Tune had the highest athletic score at the combine.  His Big Time Throw rate has been pretty high the last few years as he has proven to make winning plays in the clutch.  He has improved his turnover worthy play rate in each of the past few seasons as he has proven that he can learn to take care of the ball.  Not only did Tune improve as a passer each year at Houston, he also became more of a threat with his legs.  On top of Tune grading out well statistically, the tape matches up as he looks like he COULD be a QB that can play at a high level in the NFL.  If there is an older prospect in this years class that can ascend to be one of the top half of the league’s QBs, my bet would be on Clayton Tune.
5. Will Levis – Kentucky
   • Levis is a prospect who is very tough to peg in my eyes.  Statistically, he is a pretty bad prospect.  He takes sacks at a very high rate, regardless of how bad his offensive line is.  He has never had a great Big Time Throw rate and has had a higher turnover worthy play rate than what you would prefer.  He also does not have a conventional throwing motion and struggles to throw on the run.  However, I think he will make his money with his intangibles.  He is a pretty tough dude.  He got pressured often and took quite a few sacks, but he got up every time. He is willing to put his body on the line for the team which helps to build trust from the guys around him.  Couple that with a strong arm and that is how we are getting 1^st round buzz for him.  I personally think that is a bit rich.  I don’t ever see him being a star QB.  Although he has a strong arm and is athletic, he is almost 24 years old and still does not throw the ball on the run and struggles to escape the pocket and extend plays.  His upside is not close to as high as his biggest advocates suggest and his downside is not near as low as his biggest doubters.  Overall, I think he has solid potential to be a Ryan Tannehill/Kirk Cousins type QB but I would not bet on him being much more. I can see him as a 1^st round pick, but being picked in the top 5/10 is where I would draw the line.
6. Stetson Bennett
   • Bennett is what he is at this point.  He is a guy you can win with and will make plays for his team when they need it most.  He will never be a guy who is leading a team to the playoffs and will likely never be a true franchise guy.  As someone who will turn 26 years old midway through his rookie season, he is not one I would take with a lot of confidence to be the teams future.  However, he is a guy who is very intelligent and has very solid athleticism.  He plays with a chip on his shoulder and is a proven winner.  A team could do a lot worse than him as a backup QB of the future.  He works the pocket well and does not take a lot of sacks when pressured.  He has short area quickness that is reminiscent of a slot WR.  He even has a Big Time Throw rate that is higher than a lot of guys on this list and will take care of the ball well.  He played on a terrific team in college and was not asked to lead the team to victory each game, but if he is needed to make a play he has proven he can do it.  However, he is at his best as a distributor and not as a playmaker.  When it comes to late round picks, I think Bennett is one I’d be willing to bet on as he can be a bridge QB into the future and he is a guy his team can rally behind.  If you’re betting on Bennett to be the QB of the future you will get disappointed but if you are asking him to be a guy who is ready when called upon I believe he will succeed.
7. Hendon Hooker – Tennessee
   • I have seen 1^st round buzz for Hooker and I cannot disagree more.  I think his future is as a mid-tier backup as I see very limited upside.  First off, I am not a huge believer in his athleticism or arm strength.  I don’t see him being a plus runner at the NFL level and I see his arm as average at best.  That takes away quite a few of the points others view as strengths.  The biggest red flags to me is his ability to navigate the pocket and inability to extent plays.  Hooker has shown next to no ability to throw on the run.  If he leaves the pocket he is almost always looking to run.  He does not use his athleticism to his advantage in my opinion.  Another huge concern to me is he has next to no anticipation in the pocket.  He has not shown the ability to escape pass rushers as he has a pressure to sack rate of 30% for his career, including rates of 33% in 2021 and 29% as a 6^th year senior.  His ability to avoid sacks has not improved despite his numerous college seasons.  His biggest strength to me is his ability to avoid throwing the ball in harms way. His turnover worthy play rate of 1.1% in 2022 and 2.1 % in 2021 is very impressive. He is not a big risk taker and that can be a big positive for someone as a backup QB at the next level.  I have listed all of that without even mentioning that he will turn 26 during his rookie season, that he suffered a Torn ACL at the end of the season for Tennessee, or that he played in an offense that spaces the field unlike anything he will ever see at the NFL level.  He appears to be a very intelligent player and a good teammate so if he is somehow able to fix his ability to navigate a pocket and his ability to extent plays then I could see him making it as a starter in the NFL.  However, as a very old prospect and given that he had 6 years to figure it out at the college level, I would be very surprised to see it happen.  I would not take Hooker before the 5^th or 6^th round of the NFL draft.
8. Tanner McKee – Stanford
   • McKee has a lot of physical talent at the QB position.  He has great size and a nice arm.  His ball placement is also very good.  Where he will experience the most trouble is with his lack of mobility. It would be very difficult for me to sit here and tell you that a team will draft him with the idea of him turning into their future.  He has potential to turn into a decent backup but I even have trouble saying that.  His pressure to sack rate of 27% each of the past 2 years will probably not improve much at the next level.  I struggle to see him perform well with a poor offensive line and against a good pass rush at the next level.  Also, the fact that he did not play on a great team in college says a lot about his numbers statistically, but I do not see him improving a ton behind a better offensive unit.  Back in the early 2000’s I might have seen him as a guy who could lead a franchise, but with the way the NFL is going guys like McKee will experience a lot of trouble at the next level.
9. Dorian Thompson-Robinson – UCLA
   • Good athlete and nice talent, but does not take care of the ball well enough to be a long-term starter in my eyes.  I have McKee over Thompson-Robinson because of the fact I think McKee would make a better backup at the NFL level.  Thompson-Robinson also did not test as well as I thought he would have. His athleticism was only average, especially for someone who was a WR in high school.  The best case for Thompson-Robinson is that his passing has seemed to steadily improve throughout his time at UCLA.  From being around a 60% completion percentage around his whole career, it just up to 69% as a 5^th year. Whether that is him figuring out his passing, or the fact that UCLA figured out ways to make him more successful.  Something that I view as a bit of a cause for caution is that the percentage of pass plays that were ran with play action steadily went up throughout his time at UCLA.  He went from having no play action on 81% of his pass plays in 2019 to just 60% in 2022.  While that could be due to a number of different things, I do believe that some of it was probably due to the lack of trust in Thompson-Robinson.  Perhaps my biggest reason for concern of all, Thompson-Robinson had a higher Turnover Worthy play rate than Big Time throw rate in 4 out of his 5 years of school.  That is something that would make it hard for me to bet on him. Because he has steadily improved as a passer, I would be willing to draft him, but his inability to take care of the football is too much of a downfall for me to consider him much higher than this spot.
10. Jaren Hall – BYU
    • Upon first glance, Hall appeared to be a guy who was really getting slept on in this class.  He performed very well statistically the past 2 years and graded out fairly well on PFF. However, when digging in more there is quite a bit of red flags.  BYU does a good job of blocking and scheming against pressure, as Hall was under pressure on just 24% of his drop backs.  This ended up being pretty fortunate for BYU as Hall really struggled under pressure.  He completed just 33% of his passes when under pressure as a 5^th year senior.  He graded out similarly to CJ Stroud against pressure who had a very poor year but finished with quite a bit worse of a passer rating against pressure. Another commonality with Stroud is that Hall rarely scrambled from the pocket.  He scrambled just 27 times as a 5^th year and 9 as a 4^th year. The lack of mobility for Hall really hurts him in a lot of scenarios.  BYU’s offense does a great job of scheming guys open and does not require Hall to make a lot of plays. Often times when it was a big 3^rd or 4^th down BYU would run the ball rather than let Hall make a play.  Without a schemed up play, Hall really seemed to struggle. He lacks the necessary anticipation and does not have good enough ball placement to make up for it. While I think the lack of exposure to NFL quality plays was a lot of Zach Wilsons downfall at the NFL level, I don’t think Hall has the necessary arm strength or mobility that Wilson had to get his foot in the door. It is possible Hall improves, but for someone who is already 25 years old, I’d rather take a chance on someone else.

Logan’s QB Rankings

Tier	Project Round	Quarterback	Strengths	Weaknesses
1	Top 10	Bryce Young
1	Top 10	CJ Stroud
2	Top 10	Anthony Richardson
3	1-2	Will Levis
3	2-3	Hendon Hooker
3	3-5	Clayton Tune
3	3-5	Tanner McKee
4	5	Stetson Bennet
5	6-7	Jaren Hall
5	6-7	Jake Haener
5	6-7	Max Duggan