Jayden Daniels – LSU

• Daniels’s college career ended with a bang in 2023.  He ended up with a Heisman Trophy and a very successful individual season. He displayed tremendous playmaking ability and explosive plays in the run game.  I did however have a very differing view to the current consensus of Daniels prior to the 2023 season.  I was not a big fan at all as I saw a QB who struggled to make big plays with his arm and who had a tendency to take a lot of sacks. Although he improved some, I do not think he improved enough to completely change my opinion of him. He has always been able to make plays with his legs so that is something I expected going in. He was able to improve his pressure to sack rate from 30.8% to 20.2% which is a nice improvement.  However, throughout his college career, his pressure to sack rate bounced around the 20-30% range so I think that he will likely remain a high sack QB in the NFL. Daniels also had the most big time throws and rate of his career in 2023 as he had 29 which equated to 8.4%. This was a nice improvement for him as he was making more high level throws than he had in his entire career. My question is, is that a result of LSU unlocking Brian Thomas down the field in 2023 or a result of Daniels’s improvement? I tend to think it was more of the WRs. In general, a late career breakout is more of a WR concern but I believe it applies to all positions.  In order for me to believe that it is real, there has to be a reason. Joe Burrow is a common one that people point to, but he wasn’t able to get consistent reps until his 4th college season. So although it took him a while to get a starting job, he was able to really break out in his 2nd season that he started. Given that information, Daniels breaking out in his 5th season is a bit different than Burrow having his breakout in the same year out of high school.  Daniels started as a true freshman and played in each season since. Therefore, I would comp Daniels career arc to that of Kenny Pickett rather than Joe Burrow.

Jayden Daniels	TD/INT	Scramble Rate	BTT%	TWP%	P2S%
Super Sr.	40/4	13.4	8.4	1.6	20.2
Sr.	17/3	13.9	2.9	0.6	30.8
Jr.	10/10	14.5	2.6	2.3	20.9
So.	5/1	9.5	5.2	1.7	25.0
Fr.	17/2	15.2	4.2	2.4	24.0

Kenny Pickett	TD/INT	Scramble Rate	BTT%	TWP%	P2S%
Super Sr.	42/7	8.6	5.2	2.8	19.3
Sr.	13/9	9.2	2.8	3.3	17.4
Jr.	13/9	8.1	3.5	3.4	14.0
So.	12/6	9.4	2.4	4.0	23.6
Fr.	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Joe Burrow	TD/INT	Scramble Rate	BTT%	TWP%	P2S%
Super Sr.	60/6	7.7	7.5	1.7	19.1
Sr.	16/5	6.3	5.9	4.0	25.7
Jr.	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
So.	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Fr.	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

When looking at the table above, I can’t help but see the career comparison to Kenny Pickett.  Although Joe Burrow also had a terrific final season, it was unlike anything we have ever seen before. His volume and statistics were much different than Daniels and Pickett’s seasons. Despite those differences, Burrow was also a high sack college QB. That has continued into the NFL so there is hope that the high sack rate will not be as much of a detriment for Daniels. In the end, the best way to compare all 3 of these QBs is the fact that they all had terrific receiving cores during their late breakout season. Burrow had Jamarr Chase breakout and Justin Jefferson emerge, Pickett had Jordan Addison explode, and Daniels had the explosion of Malik Nabers to go along with the emergence of Brian Thomas. The reason I am expecting Daniels to follow the path of Pickett rather than Burrow is that they both had 4 years of mid-tier play and the one great year, whereas Burrow had the one season of experience prior to his breakout season.

My other takeaway from the tables above is the scramble rate for Jayden Daniels. It has gone down which is a positive, but a big weakness in Daniels’s game is that he has a bad tendency to tuck the ball and run at the first sign of pressure. Although he is a terrific runner, Daniels is not really a playmaker outside of the pocket with his arm. He has some moments, but Daniels would much rather run when faced with pressure instead of keeping his eyes downfield with the idea of passing.  In the league, this will really limit his impact in my opinion. That is without mentioning his unwillingness to throw the ball away when pressured and his tendency to take big hits when using his legs.  Given that he had 5 years in college, I think it is wishful thinking he will be able to improve a ton in the NFL. I personally would rather take a shot at some of the younger prospects in this years draft.  Jayden Daniels is 7 months younger than Trey Lance and is older than each of the first round QBs from the 2023 draft.

How could it go wrong for Jayden Daniels in the NFL?

• For Daniels, I think this is pretty simple. If his 5th college season was an anomaly then I think Daniels will struggle being a long-term starting QB in the NFL. Even in his breakout season Daniels took a good amount of sacks so that will likely continue once he gets to the NFL. Also, if Daniels is not able to make/attempt tight window throws at the next level he could ultimately struggle as a passer at the NFL level.  He is a good athlete so he will be able to make some plays with his legs, but if teams key in on his rushing ability that would really force him to beat them with his arm. I am not a huge believer in Daniels’s ability to win with his arm, I think this scenario is a lot more likely than what his draft position would suggest.

How could Daniels succeed in the NFL?

• In order for Daniels to succeed in the NFL, I think he will need to be a quick processor in the pocket. Given his tendency to run at the sign of pressure, if he is able to make quick reads in the NFL while also maintaining his rushing ability, he could be a major asset. He showed signs of being able to do this in his final season which allowed him to win the Heisman trophy. Will he be able to do this without a top flight receiving core? That is the major question. Having a ready made WR core for Daniels in the NFL would be a huge plus for him, as it would allow him to continue with his confidence that he gained in the final season. Without that, I would definitely be concerned. But if he is able to execute in the short passing game I think that would do wonders for his ability to succeed in the NFL.

Best comp:

• I had a tough time finding a realistic comp for Daniels because there are not a lot of QBs with his play style that have a frame like his. I ended up settling on a version of Justin Fields as the best comp for Jayden Daniels. Fields has a better build than Daniels and better tools, but their play styles have the most similarities in my opinion. Similarly to Fields, Daniels has the ability to change a game with his legs. His speed and explosiveness from the QB position make him very difficult to stop. Daniels also came from a similar situation in their final years of college. Both played in a QB friendly offense with WRs that had the ability to hide their shortcomings as passers. I think Daniels struggles in the same areas as Fields with his passing, they both struggle to throw into tight windows and neither are particularly impressive at working through reads. I think Daniels is a bit more advanced at working through reads than Fields, but with his receiving core, it was not put to the test enough to be certain.  Also, given their running styles, both Daniels and Fields have an unwillingness to avoid hits in the open field. Fields has missed multiple games in the NFL due to this issue and Daniels could end up with a similar issue. I do not think Fields was done a lot of favors early on in the NFL with his development as he was never able to develop as a passer enough to threaten a defense. If Daniels is able to become an effective passer in the NFL, it could open up a lot for an offense with his ability to run.

Final Grade and thoughts:

• 6.3 – Bridge QB – NFL Starter
  • In the end, my thought is that Daniels ends up as more of a game manager type QB in the NFL. He had success in his early years as an effective runner and someone who could make an exciting play on occasion. However, his inability to make the big play with his arm and his drive killing sacks prevented the team from ever being able to put a ton on him in critical situations. Given his shortcomings and his age, I think expecting him to be a playmaking star in the NFL is wishful thinking. So although I think he has a shot to be a long-term starter, I think a bridge QB future is probably the more likely scenario.

– Nick

*QB Scale:

10. Future Hall of Famer – Multiple Super Bowls, among the All-time greats.

9. Future Star – Will challenge for MVP(s) and Super Bowls consistently.

8. Good NFL starter – If the stars align he can win a Super Bowl and maybe challenge for MVP.

7. NFL starter – Will be a reliable starter who will get a 2nd contract. Team will look to upgrade at some point.

6. Bridge QB/Spot starter  –  Probably not a franchise guy, but will be a good backup and a starter if necessary.

5. Backup future – Will be a guy who a team will feel comfortable if they are in relief but not a long-term option.

4. Roster spot candidate – Will challenge for roster spots and could play in a pinch. Likely bouncing from team to team.

3. Practice Squad QB – Likely will not make a gameday roster but will be good enough to make a practice squad.

2. Will get a look early on – Likely will not make a practice squad but will get the opportunity.

1. Not a NFL QB at all