• JJ McCarthy ended up with a very successful Junior season at Michigan. Although he did not jump off the page statistically, he experienced great team success and came off as a very good leader. With just one loss as a starter in college, JJ definitely has experience winning that will be an asset to teams in the future. The biggest benefit for McCarthy entering the pros is that he came from a pro style offense that will translate better than most prospects. He shouldn’t have the learning curve that others have in the past, which makes him much easier to project in the league. However, the biggest thing that is difficult to project for McCarthy is how he will be able to function in a heavy pass offense. When entering the league, he will likely need a consistent run game in order to ease the transition. So although he shouldn’t have much of a difficulty easing into an NFL offense, the idea of him leading a pass heavy script might be a challenge early on. Although I think McCarthy is an overall solid passer with nice tools, he does need to refine a lot of his accuracy. Whether that is a matter of inability or lack of experience, he will definitely have some issues with certain throws once he gets into the league. He really seemed to struggle with out-breaking routes and comebacks on the outside. His ball placement on those routes is a work in progress and something that could come with experience. He is very inconsistent with the ball placement and the communication with the receivers seemed consistently off on those routes. He also seemed a bit unwilling and unsure of himself when stretching the field vertically. McCarthy often did not throw with touch which forced him to have pinpoint accuracy rather than giving his receivers a chance to run under the pass. When it comes to those passes, I do think he can improve on them given his age and overall lack of experience throwing those routes. If he gets into a system where he will be asked to throw those routes more consistently, I expect McCarthy to put more time into those routes. Regardless, it is a bit of a hindrance to his game in the meantime. Despite these flaws, there is a lot to like about McCarthy’s game as a passer. He is always willing to test tight windows, whether that be short, over the middle, or down the field. That is something that will allow him to translate much easier to an offense which lacks playmakers on the outside. Although Michigan was a tremendous team last season, I did not think they had great separators on the outside which in turn helped prepare JJ for life in the NFL. I personally am a big believer in QBs being willing to test tight windows. Interceptions will happen, but the best QBs in the league are willing to take risk and that is something McCarthy is willing to do. I am also a big fan of McCarthy’s playmaking outside the pocket. That is a very underrated part of his game. He is willing to stand in the pocket and make throws in the face of pressure, and also escape pressure while keeping his eyes downfield to pass. McCarthy finishes with a career pressure to sack rate of 14.3% which I consider to be very encouraging. He showed great ability to navigate a pocket and was able to manipulate rushers in order to avoid a sack. Not only has he displayed a good ability of playmaking outside the pocket and good sack avoidance, but McCarthy’s willingness to throw to the middle of the field is a huge plus. In today’s NFL, the most common offenses utilized relies heavily on quarterbacks throwing to the middle of the field. That is something McCarthy is able to do often. Whether it be hitting a crossing route or a TE over the middle, he is confident in himself using the middle of the field to his advantage.

How could it go wrong for JJ McCarthy in the NFL?

• As outlined above, I have a difficult time seeing McCarthy completely flop in the NFL due to his experience playing in a NFL system and his willingness to utilize the middle of the field. However, I do see a path where he is not able to reach his full potential. Due to his overall lack of experience in pass heavy game scripts, it is possible he will never be an elite level thrower of the football. It is possible that he will be able to manage a game without minimizing turnovers but he will struggle to take over a game due to his inability to stretch the field vertically and utilize the outer boundaries of the field. I am confident in JJ’s ability to play a role as a leader and QB who makes smart decisions, but there are still questions as to whether he can be a field stretcher with his arm that is required to be a high level QB in the NFL.

How could McCarthy reach the upper echelon of QBs in the NFL?

• In order for JJ McCarthy to become one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL, he will need to develop well as a passer. One of the most valuable parts of McCarthy as a prospect is how advanced as a QB he is at the little things despite him being the youngest quarterback prospect in the draft. He has good footwork, has knowledge of a NFL style offense, can utilize the middle of the field, and has good playmaking ability outside the pocket. Given that information, it will make it much easier to focus on aspects of the game where he can add polish. If McCarthy is able to fix his mechanical issues on throws outside the numbers and he is able to perfect a deep ball, the game could really open up for McCarthy. It is also within the realm of possibilities that Michigan’s dominance in other aspects of the game held McCarthy back a bit. McCarthy was terrific on 3rd downs in his junior season which would lead one to believe that he is not afraid of the moment and that he is very capable. It also shows that despite him not having a ton of volume, the trust was still there. Although it would be surprising, it would not shock me if McCarthy were ready to go in a pass heavy script from the get go in the league. Under the scenario where he is able to refine his outside the numbers and vertical passing game, it is very possible that McCarthy could be an elite level quarterback at the next level. Although he does not quite have the arm talent of a Allen/Mahomes, his playmaking ability outside the pocket has the potential to be special in the way that they are. So although becoming a QB on their level could be a bit of a stretch, becoming a star in his own right is not.

Best comp:

• Admittedly, I have had some difficulty finding a true comp for JJ McCarthy. The closest play style comp I could think of is Joe Burrow. Obviously Burrow had a bit more polish than McCarthy coming out of college, but he also had two more years to refine his game. The aspects where I find them the most similar is that they both have playmaking ability outside the pocket but they would much rather pick you apart from inside the pocket. McCarthy is a bit quicker to bail from a pocket than Burrow but with more experience I would bet he will improve. As you can see in the charts below, McCarthy’s two years in college appear eerily similar to Burrow in a number of areas. The volume could skew the data a bit as Burrow had nearly double the amount of drop backs as McCarthy in their final college seasons, but regardless it is an interesting data point. They both have very similar ADOTs, Time to Throw, scramble rates, and big time throw rates. That is even with Burrow being two full years older than McCarthy at the time they got their experience. Although there are aspects where they differ, I think the play style comparison of JJ McCarthy to Joe Burrow is pretty similar.

JJ McCarthy	ADOT	Scramble Rate	BTT%	TWP%	P2S%	Time to Throw
Jr.	9.4	4.9	5.9	2.9	16.8	2.84
So.	10.7	6.7	5.5	3.4	10.8	2.95

Joe Burrow	ADOT	Scramble Rate	BTT%	TWP%	P2S%	Time to Throw
Super Sr.	9.6	7.7	7.5	1.7	19.1	2.95
Sr.	10.7	6.3	5.9	4.0	25.7	2.81

Final Grade and thoughts:

7.2 – NFL Starter – Good NFL Starter

• All in all, I think McCarthy has a ton of potential. Given his age and tools, I think he can become a special player in the NFL. I think he can have some success early, but I predict there will become a point where he will really need to improve his passing ability. How he responds to that will be the deciding factor in how good he will be. If he is able to push forward and unlock more aspects of the field he can be a high level starter in the league. Even if he doesn’t, I think his full-on bust potential is pretty low due to his success in a NFL scheme and his translating skill set. At minimum I see McCarthy as a quarterback a team can win with.

-Nick

*QB Scale:

10. Future Hall of Famer – Multiple Super Bowls, among the All-time greats.

9. Future Star – Will challenge for MVP(s) and Super Bowls consistently.

8. Good NFL starter – If the stars align he can win a Super Bowl and maybe challenge for MVP.

7. NFL starter – Will be a reliable starter who will get a 2nd contract. Team will look to upgrade at some point.

6. Bridge QB/Spot starter  –  Probably not a franchise guy, but will be a good backup and a starter if necessary.

5. Backup future – Will be a guy who a team will feel comfortable if they are in relief but not a long-term option.

4. Roster spot candidate – Will challenge for roster spots and could play in a pinch. Likely bouncing from team to team.

3. Practice Squad QB – Likely will not make a gameday roster but will be good enough to make a practice squad.

2. Will get a look early on – Likely will not make a practice squad but will get the opportunity.

1. Not a NFL QB at all