Nick’s Rankings

Tier 1: Fernando Mendoza

Tier 2: Garrett Nussmeier and Ty Simpson.

Tier 3: Carson Beck and Drew Allar.

Tier 4: Cole Payton

I only did write-ups on guys I believe have a reasonable chance at being NFL QBs, or who are viewed as such by others.

1. Fernando Mendoza – Indiana
   • Mendoza has definitely impressed me this season and has surpassed my expectations by quite a bit. He has the right makeup to be a NFL QB and is clearly a very intelligent player. He throws with good touch and his ball is always catchable. He has one of the lower drop rates in college as his ball has the perfect amount of velocity and touch. That is his calling card in my opinion and was going in as well. He also is a very tough guy who will put his body on the line for his team. He stands in the pocket to deliver throws with a defender headed straight for him and will never shy away from contact when taking off with his legs. Another area where I questioned Mendoza going into the year was his arm talent. I thought he was overrated in that regard and would struggle to make NFL throws. While I don’t think he has elite arm talent and struggles to throw the deep ball at times, his arm talent is plenty good enough for his play style and he makes plenty of NFL throws. I do however still think there are a decent amount of weaknesses to his game and ones he really needs to clean up in order to be a successful NFL QB. He has a tendency to drop his eyes after his initial read is taken away. He played in a RPO heavy scheme where guys were open quickly and he made a lot of quick decisions that way. While I thought he was promising when running full read plays, there will definitely be a transition period when going to a more open NFL scheme. I also worry that Mendoza will be a higher sack rate guy at the NFL level. His pressure to sack rate has lived in the 16-25% range at the college level with Indiana getting it down to 18.9%. That is manageable at the NFL level but he has some times where he struggles to escape the rush and runs into a sack. Finding a system early where he can get comfortable will be important for Mendoza. At the end of the day, playing in a system where you make a lot of quick reads and deliver the ball accurately has translatable aspects no matter what. I think a system like Klint Kubiak’s for the Raiders will find ways to take Mendoza’s strengths and make a functional offense. The biggest area of weakness for Mendoza and where I think his upside is capped is the playmaking side of his game. While I think Mendoza is an effective rusher, he rarely throws on the run and when a play breaks down he almost always tucks and runs. I worry that he will struggle at the next level on 3rd and long and on late game drives. In college when his initial read was not there he had a tendency to take off even when he didn’t have a lane for the first down or throw it well short of the sticks. It is possible that Mendoza is simply smart enough to decipher the elite NFL defensive schemes and will be immune to the Brian Flores or Mike McDonald schemes, but it is also well within the realm of possibilities that Mendoza will have a very difficult time against those defenses. Without the improvising ability, I worry he will be a bit limited, similar to Jared Goff at the next level.  While there are some concerning weaknesses in his game, I still would take a chance on Mendoza early in the draft and think he has a good shot to be a franchise guy for a team like the Raiders. Whether he can elevate into the top portion of NFL QBs is where I have serious doubts.
   • Final Grade: 7.1 NFL Starter-Good NFL Starter
2. Garrett Nussmeier – LSU
   • Nussmeier will likely never reach the heights that I thought he could two summers ago. I don’t see a top flight QB within his grasps anymore but I do still see a guy that can be a productive pro. I am of the belief that Nussmeier was hurt for the majority of the 2025 season and was simply out there for his teammates and trying to win for his school. He did not seem as confident as the years prior and they seemed to change the gameplan to protect him from his injury. He was not able to get as much on his throws as years past and had noticeably less mobility. There have been numerous situations in the NFL where a guy will gut it out through an injury and his play will suffer in ways that are not always visible from the outside. It cost Baker his career in Cleveland and his reputation suffered in the short-term from that. Trevor Lawrence had a very similar situation that caused a lot of people to lose faith in him. Both Mayfield and Lawrence bounced back from their injuries and silenced the doubters and I believe Nussmeier will do the same.  Even with the injury, Nussmeier’s pocket movement was tremendous. That is the area where I think Nussmeier makes his money, he escapes the rush better than most and navigates the pocket at a high level. I don’t think he is a special athlete by any stretch but he is effective at throwing on the run and is a good enough playmaker outside the pocket to be dangerous. Not only that, but he has a prototype that NFL franchises look for as a guy who has a very quick release, avoids sacks at an elite level, and can operate a quick passing game with deep shots mixed in. Nussmeier throws a very catchable ball and is always willing to give his receivers a chance. I do have concerns that he will never become a successful redzone QB as it seemed that LSU could never get the right mix of plays put together and he lacks mobility to extend the play at the goal line. That will always hinder him a bit and that leads me to believe that the most effective offense around Nussmeier in the NFL involves a good rushing attack that can score at the goal line. Another aspect of his game that is a major question is whether Nussmeier can be an effective QB under center. If the play action pass game is effective it can make the transition easier but it is going to be an adjustment having his back to the defense more than he ever has. Jayden Daniels is one who has yet to take a lot of under center snaps in the NFL after being a primarily shotgun QB at LSU. It is tough to know if it is based on ability or just the structure of the offense. Regardless, that could be something that could hold Nussmeier back at the NFL level as he does not have the escapability of Daniels.  Regardless, I still think Nussmeier’s play style will translate well and I think a healthy offseason will allow him to be ready from the jump at the next level in the right system. I think the tools are there for him to be a franchise guy even if he might never be an elite guy. He likely will not get the level of draft capital that would be necessary to cement himself getting an extended trial period, but I still have confidence in Nussmeier to perform when he gets that shot. I am likely higher on Nussmeier than most and would be willing to draft him in the 1st or 2nd round.
   • Final Grade: 6.5 Bridge QB-NFL Starter

3. Ty Simpson – Alabama
   • Ty Simpson is an interesting watch. He has some moments of brilliance and one’s where you think he has potential. Other moments he will be hitting guys at the wrong spot or panicking under pressure. Long story short with Simpson, I think he is an intriguing player but he lacks experience and lacks the elite tools required to be a long-term NFL QB. There is a way you can make it in the NFL without one of those qualities, but you typically need the other to fall back on. That’s why I struggle to rate Simpson very highly. I don’t think he has any special traits to hang his hat on while he deals with the lumps of playing in the NFL with limited experience going in. He does show moments where his playmaking skills could be a building block but I really struggle to see a plus NFL athlete there. He gets by at the college level but I wouldn’t be surprised if he struggles to create outside the pocket at a good enough level. He also has a tendency to either miss his target or hit him when falling down. I think he does a solid job at getting to the right read, but the execution is just not there at the moment. It wouldn’t be shocking if he fixed his accuracy and was a functional QB at the next level, but it’s a question whether he will get the experience necessary to get to that level. There are moments on tape where the game clearly appears sped up for him which is completely normal for a guy with limited game reps. The bottom line is the NFL is not a league where you can gain experience. There are very few circumstances where teams will give players full reps in the preseason in order to get them up to speed. I would like to bet on Simpson, but I just struggle to see it without the experience and tools. The draft capital will be very important for him as he will need a spot where he can develop and gain reps without the possibility of a benching. Perhaps he can go somewhere where he can learn for multiple years similar to a Jordan Love or Aaron Rodgers, but there are very few situations where that would be an option. At the end of the day, Simpson is not a guy I would bet on and I don’t think he is one I would pull the trigger on until the 3rd or 4th round. I just do not think he has the high end outcomes in his range that would warrant betting on a guy with this little of experience. The list of Quarterbacks that have hit in the NFL with one year of starting experience is slim, and Cam Newton/Kyler Murray had high end traits to rely on as they gained experience.
   • Final Grade: 6.2 Bridge QB-NFL Starter
4. Carson Beck – Miami
   • After many years of doing write-up’s on Carson Beck only for him to go back to school, he has finally decided to be done with college. That being said, there is still a lot to like with Carson Beck as a NFL prospect. He has a lot of starting experience at the college level and was able to continue his same level of play at two different schools. If anything, this proves just how safe his floor is. I think Beck could get into a NFL game tomorrow for the right team and his own.  The key phrase there was “for the right team.”  In my opinion, Beck goes how his surroundings go. At this point in his career I think you are drafting Carson Beck to be a floor raiser for your QB room and one who can be elevated if the situation is right. He does not have special arm talent and he is lacking in the playmaking/athleticism standpoint, but he makes up for it with quick processing and confidence. Beck is highly effective in the short passing game and gets rid of the ball quickly. Similar to Bo Nix as a prospect, I think Beck could go into the NFL and execute at a reasonable level early on with his ability in the short game. When it comes to downfield passing and decision making, that is where Beck’s flaws start to come out. Anything further than 10 yards down the field is iffy with Beck. He is often not confident enough to let it rip into a tight window and he lets the ball hang too long on deep balls. When he steps into his throw with confidence he can make a downfield throw, but he is way too inconsistent at that for a 24 year old with this much experience. I think part of that could be the lack of arm talent that resulted from his below injury.  Another aspect of Beck’s game that is worrisome is his lack of playmaking ability. When facing pressure Beck tends to speed up a bit too much. He does not make a lot of plays outside the pocket with his arm and is not quick enough to make big plays with his legs. Couple that with his unwillingness to make tight level throws with consistency, and you have a guy who really struggles on 3rd and 4th down with 5 or more yards to go. He has a bad habit of making throws off his back foot and just heaving the ball up for grabs downfield. That is something you do not want to see for a 6th year college QB. If a team drafts Carson Beck to operate the offensive system while not asking him for too much, I think you could be pretty happy with him. If you draft Carson Beck to elevate your offense and become a top NFL QB, you will likely end up disappointed. In my opinion, I would feel comfortable drafting Beck in the 3rd-5th round on the right team. I don’t see him being a second contract starting QB for the same team, but I think he is a guy who can start for a few years. At worst, if his demeanor matches up, I think Beck could have a long career as a backup.
   • Final Grade: 6.1 Bridge QB-NFL Starter
5. Drew Allar – Penn State
   • Drew Allar is a guy that I had a lot of faith in coming into last season. He was my preseason QB1 for this class and I thought he would build on his late season resurgence. Unfortunately, Allar did not take that leap. He had the highest Turnover Worthy Play Rate of his career and the lowest Big Time Throw Rate. Why that was the case, I am not quite sure. Penn State’s offense seemed to struggle all season long running the football and the pass game was not functioning the way it did in 2024. I think Penn State thought Allar would shoulder more of the load and he was not ready for the moment. I do not think Penn State did a good enough job of backfilling Tyler Warren’s production and the offensive line was not as reliable. Allar was also falling back on bad habits with his mechanics. He has a tendency to short arm passes and does weird arm angles when trying to get rid of the ball quickly. He also is simply not consistent enough with his accuracy. Combining that with limited out of pocket ability, and you have a guy that is still well short of his potential.  On the bright side, Allar still has very special tools. He has the best arm talent in this class by a good amount and has the size to go along with it. He makes throws outside the numbers you can’t teach and is able to rifle a throw into a tight window. Allar also does a good job of navigating pass rush as he still maintained a Pressure to Sack rate under 15%. With that being said, I still think Allar is one that needs a decent amount of developing. The path for him being a successful NFL starter involves him landing in the right system with a coach who has a history of developing quarterbacks. A spot like the Jets where he can learn under Frank Reich could be a decent spot, or getting into a Shanahan/McVay system like the Cardinals or Rams would be a beneficial spot. If Allar could sit behind Stafford for a year or two and really develop, I think he could be ready to hit the ground running when Stafford retires. That would allow Allar to learn behind a Hall of Famer and work relentlessly on his mechanics. That is where Allar needs the most work and the path to him becoming a franchise guy. I truly believe that Drew Allar can be a franchise QB for a team in the NFL but he has his work cut out for him to get there. I expect him to get drafted in the 2nd-5th round and I think that is where I would take him as well. 
   • Final Grade: 5.5 Backup Future-Spot Starter
6. Cole Payton – North Dakota State
   • Cole Payton is a very intriguing prospect. He has terrific size and good tools to go along with it. He has a career Big Time Throw Rate over 10% and possesses the ability to be the centerpoint of an offense in the run game. He has two years with over 600 yards rushing and 13 rushing touchdowns. That is a very impressive feat as a QB and that coupled with the BTT Rate makes it pretty clear that he would be on NFL radars. The biggest issue however is that he will be 24 years old during his first NFL season and has just 13 career starts at the FCS level. The jump from the FCS ranks to the NFL alone is a massive leap and one that will take quite a bit of adjusting to but the lack of experience added to that makes the likelihood that he ever makes it as a NFL QB pretty low. His Time to Throw Rate of 3.33 is also very high and consistent with those with limited starting experience. The best path forward for Payton is to get as many preseason reps as possible. He will need to be drafted to a team that is fully invested in his development and will provide him much needed preseason reps. I think him getting on a NFL field as a rookie would be a complete disaster absent a Taysom Hill type role. However, I think a Taysom Hill like role could be his best path to a NFL future. Hill is one who has primarily received reps as a wildcat like role where he occasionally gets passing opportunities. Payton would have his best path to playing time in this kind of role where he gets the opportunity to continue developing as a passer and getting live passing reps every once in awhile. While I think his path is unlikely to result in him being a NFL QB, it is not impossible. 
   • Final Grade: 3.7 Practice Squad QB-Roster Spot Candidate

*This analysis utilizes advanced metrics and grading data from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

*QB Scale:

• 10. Future Hall of Famer – Multiple Super Bowls, among the All-time greats.
• 9. Future Star – Will challenge for MVP(s) and Super Bowls consistently.
• 8. Good NFL starter – If the stars align he can win a Super Bowl and maybe challenge for MVP.
• 7. NFL starter – Will be a reliable starter who will get a 2nd contract. Team will look to upgrade at some point.
• 6.  Bridge QB/Spot starter  –  Probably not a franchise guy, but will be a good backup and a starter if necessary.
• 5.  Backup future – Will be a guy who a team will feel comfortable if they are in relief but not a long-term option.
• 4.  Roster spot candidate – Will challenge for roster spots and could play in a pinch. Likely bouncing from team to team.
• 3.  Practice Squad QB – Likely will not make a gameday roster but will be good enough to make a practice squad.
• 2. Will get a look early on – Likely will not make a practice squad but will get the opportunity.
• 1. Not a NFL QB at all